Thursday, February 28, 2013

If we're going to deal with cold weather, we might as well get snow!

A cold winter-like pattern has moved over the eastern U.S. and Mid-South this week as we head towards the first few days of March.  And if you know Mid-South weather or have listened to MWN for any length of time, you know we don't rule out winter weather, even some snow, around the first of March.  It looks like we'll once again have a shot at wintry precip as March comes in like a lion!

A large-scale upper level trough dominates the eastern U.S. weather pattern which has allowed cold Canadian air to drop south into the Mid-South. Upper level disturbances rotating through the trough have brought light rain a couple of times the past few days, but mostly they have maintained cloud cover, which has kept temperatures very cool.  As cold air continues to pour in for another couple of days, it's gotten cold enough aloft that the next disturbance will bring precipitation that will likely contain some light snow!

A huge trough over the eastern U.S. has provided a conveyor for disturbances to rotate through.
We expect this chance of precipitation to move into the area Friday afternoon into Friday night. While surface temperatures should be just warm enough in the afternoon (lower 40s) to produce light rain, by evening temps will be cooling into the 30s and precip should change over to light snow. The best chance for any accumulating snow will be during the evening hours Friday, though flurries will be possible all night into early Saturday.  The amount of precipitation is expected to be light, so anything more than a dusting of snow is not expected in the metro, but there is potential for up to 1/4" to 1/2" of snow Friday night.

The NAM computer model indicates much of the region could see a dusting, but less than 1", of snow

By Saturday afternoon we should begin to see some sun and Sunday will be mostly sunny but still cold with highs in the lower 40s. A warming trend starts the first of next week with another chance of rain on Monday night.

We'll continue to keep an eye on the computer models and update our snow chances and forecast amounts via our social channels listed below as well as in the MWN Forecast.  Overall, this is not a big snow threat, but maybe a nice way to END winter!  We can only hope!

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