Saturday, June 9, 2012

Wet weather good for the drought, but bad for the PGA Tour

The Mid-South has been treated to a nice break from the heat much of this week, with temperatures in the 80s and low humidity, not like typical early June weather in this part of the country! Unfortunately, as you may expect, this nice weather is not made to last. A pattern change taking place over the weekend will not only bring the humidity levels back up, but our rain chances will be increasing as well. 

The pattern change is due to an area of low pressure, currently just off the northeast TX coast. As it moves slowly northeast into the lower Mississippi Valley this weekend, moisture will surge back into the Mid-South on southerly winds. Some good news – it does appear at least today will be in decent shape rain-wise. The humidity increase will be felt, and that may trigger a few thunderstorms by afternoon, but most metro residents should stay dry as the greatest rain will be concentrated towards central Mississippi closer to the low pressure.

As low pressure nears the area Sunday, showers/t'storms become likely
However, Sunday does not look to hold the same amount of hope. As the low moves closer, tropical moisture gets drawn farther into the area and will make showers and t’storms much more likely to impact the metro throughout the day on Sunday. While this will not be a classic severe weather maker, heavy downpours, lightning, and perhaps gusty winds could disrupt outdoor activities. Any slow-moving storm could result in localized flash flooding, even with much of the Mid-South still needing more rain to put a dent in our recent drought.  So while the FedEx St. Jude Classic got a couple of great weather days to start the tournament, today will be more humid and breezy and, if the current forecast holds, tourney officials need to be prepared for some golf on Monday!

As  a cold front moves in Tuesday, more t'storms become likely
There is some model disagreement on how fast this first system exits the area, but it looks as if it should push east enough of us to give the region a bit of a break on Monday, though a few additional storms popping up in the afternoon cannot be ruled out. The break is short-lived, as a cold front on the approach from the northwest moves in Monday night into Tuesday. This will result in another round of likely showers and storms that have a slightly better chance of being severe than any this weekend.

By Tuesday night, the front looks to be just south of the area, which will mark the beginning of a drier pattern for a couple of days. That said, it won’t be much of a “cold” front, as high temperatures change little behind it.  In fact, with less cloud cover, it's likely temperatures could be a little warmer towards the middle of the week than the beginning.

MemphisWeather.Net will keep you updated on the upcoming wet weather, including nowcasting on our social media feeds (links below) for any thunderstorms that might impact the metro area.

So what weekend plans do you have, and will they have to be changed if rain falls?

--Kevin Terry, MemphisWeather.Net

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