Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Could "Lee" bring tropical conditions to the Gulf Coast for Labor Day?

I've mentioned on social media a couple of times the strong possibility of a Gulf of Mexico tropical system this Labor Day weekend.  Computer models are not in good agreement with exactly where and how strong, but it appears that the central and or western Gulf Coast could see heavy rain and breezy conditions this weekend as the system moves northwest from the southern Gulf.

Below are a couple of model comparisons - all valid at 7pm Saturday evening - to demonstrate what I am talking about with model spread.  (Note also all 3 models showing Hurricane Katia northeast of the Leeward Islands on the far right edge of the images.) If this system does indeed develop and gets named, it will be "Lee."  The MWN Tropical page will have the latest on this developing system once it becomes a Tropical Depression.
GFS forecast - T.S. Lee off the southeast LA coast

NAM forecast for Saturday, 7pm - T.S. Lee off the TX coast

ECMWF forecast with a weak T.D. Lee near the south TX coast
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