Friday, June 25, 2010

Tropical disturbance organizing, will become T.D. 1

A disturbance traversing the southern Caribbean the past several days has continued to become more organized with deeper convection the past day or so and is now very near Tropical Depression strength (see satellite image above). The National Hurricane Center currently has a hurricane hunter aircraft investigating the system and could label the system T.D. 1 by the end of the day.

As to where it's headed and how strong it will get... initially T.D. 1 will move into the Yucatan Peninsula and could bring heavy rain and gusty wind to the resort areas, including Cancun and Cozumel, this weekend. Whether it reaches Tropical Storm strength and gains the name Alex prior to that is questionable, but certainly possible. After moving across the Yucatan, the storm will emerge into the Bay of Campeche early next week. Where it goes from there is uncertain, however one group of models takes it northwest into the western Gulf of Mexico, possibly becoming a long-term threat to the TX/LA coastline. See a clutter plot of several various model solutions below. The Tropical page will show the latest forecast tracks, intensities, and any watches and warnings that may be issued next week.

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