February 2012 Climate Data and MWN Forecast Accuracy

Warm winter temperatures continued into February, though not as much above average as January.  Precipitation was below average for the second straight month. According to the National Weather Service, the meteorological winter recording period of December-February ended up as the 7th warmest on record at Memphis International Airport.  The average temperature of 47.1 degrees was 4.1 degrees above normal. There was not a single day in which the temperature did not rise above freezing. Total snowfall for the winter was 1.3" (2.3" below normal) and total precipitation was 13.31", or 0.79" below the long-term average of 14.10".

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
The average temperature for the month of February was 49.0 degrees, 3.5 degrees above normal. The average high temperature was 57.3 degrees and the average low was 40.6. The coolest temperature of the month was 22 degrees on the 12th, while the highest temperature was 79 degrees set on the 23rd.  There were only 5 days in which the low temperature dropped to, or below, freezing (32 F). Conversely, there were 11 days in which the high reached 60 degrees or better and 4 days in the last week of the month which saw a high of over 70 degrees was recorded..

Precipitation for the month totaled 3.03", which was 1.36" below average.  There were 14 days with measurable rainfall but only two of those days had 0.50" or more. The maximum 24-hour amount was 1.02" on the 3rd-4th. There were traces of snowfall recorded on the 10th and 11th and a trace of snow & sleet on the13th.  The peak wind gust was 32 mph (from the southwest) on the 23rd with an average wind speed for the month of 8.3 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions, Bartlett, TN
The average February temperature at Cirrus Weather Solutions in north Bartlett was 48.1 degrees with a maximum of 79.2 degrees on the 23rd and a minimum of 19.9 degrees on the 13th.  February precipitation totaled 3.03" in the automated gauge. A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 3.05".  There were traces of snowfall recorded on the 10th and 11th and a trace of snow & sleet on the13th.  The peak wind gust was 37 mph during the early morning hours of the 29th. Average relative humidity was 66%. Click here for a daily recap on MemphisWeather.net.

MWN Forecast Accuracy
For the month of February, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 2.54 degrees. 64% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast averaged 3.61 degrees of error and fell within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint 46% of the time. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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