Thursday, March 6, 2008

Snow forecast update

Will be issuing my MemphisWeather.Net forecast shortly and will concentrate on tweeks to the short term, including expected snowfall totals. Bottom line, the potential for a good amount of snowfall (for Memphis) or a great forecast bust are high! I tend to lean towards the first.

Would not be surprised to see northern parts of Shelby County and Tipton County get 3-4" while the rest of Shelby Co. gets 2-3". DeSoto and Fayette Counties may also see 2-3" while Crittenden County and West Memphis get 2-4" (less to the south and more north).

Timing: rain should begin mixing with snow after 10am, then change to all snow after 1pm. It will continue the rest of the afternoon, perhaps at it's heaviest between ~4-8pm, then taper after midnight. The NWS is also indicating 3-5" for Memphis and Shelby Co.

As for expected road conditions in the Memphis area: Roads should be fine through mid afternoon with the first inch or snow of snow melting on contact. By evening, as sun sets and snow continues to fall, slushy conditions will be likely. Overnight, as temps drop below freezing about 10pm, roads could accumulate a little snow, but not as much as grassy surfaces. Slush could freeze over by morning, making early Saturday morning treacherous.

Below you see one of the maps that we forecasters might look at. It's a 48-hour total snowfall map for the Mid-South based on a model called the NAM. Not necessarily the "truth," but a piece of info we use to try and forecast that "truth."

1 comment:

stm/01 said...

Well Erik, I think your statement about a big bust or a big snow is correct. I tend to agree with you and think we should see a good 2 + inches..evaporation cooling will really come into play here..wet bulbs look good on the models..also the upper support is a good enhancer..but this is memphis and the midsouth where you never are 100%..thats what makes it interesting..I am off and will be at my weather desk..