Beautiful spring weather may be interrupted by severe weather on Saturday

A cloudy and cool Easter weekend gave way into a pleasant early week for the Memphis Metro. As the weekend approaches, we prepare for our next round of rain and the possibility of severe weather that could disrupt some Saturday evening plans.

Thursday

A low pressure system is currently sitting over southern Mississippi, this will bring clouds and some passing showers in the afternoon to evening hours. Due to the positioning of the low pressure to our south, rain will be moving to the west, rather than its usual eastward motion, as it rotates counter-clockwise around the low. Despite the clouds and rain, temperatures reached the mid 70s for highs and will drop into the upper 50s overnight.

Visible satellite from Thursday afternoon shows the center of the low-pressure over southern Mississippi with western moving clouds over Memphis. (College of DuPage)

Friday

Clouds will begin to be more broken throughout the day on Friday as the low pressure to the south begins to weaken and moves off to the northeast. Temperatures will be warmer ahead of the next system with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the lower 60s.

Saturday

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Memphis Metro in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms on Saturday.

A level 2 out of 5 severe weather risk has been issued for Saturday. (SPC)

Highs temperatures nearing 80 and dewpoints climbing into the mid 60s will provide the fuel for this system, and a cold front moving across the great plains towards the east coast be the spark for these storms to start to form. Some prefrontal showers are possible in the morning. Due to the time difference between these storms and a line expected to move through, they will not have much of a limiting impact on the later storms. 

Isolated storms are possible in western Arkansas when they are first forming in the afternoon, but they quickly become linear over central Arkansas by late afternoon. As the storms approach the metro, they will lose daytime heating and some intensity. Once the line nears the river around midnight it should begin to break up, meaning that our Arkansas counties have a slightly higher chance of seeing some severe storms, but strong to severe storms are possible across the whole metro. The primary threats with this system will be strong winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

The high-resolution NAM model shows what the radar could look like from 5am Saturday to 1am Sunday. The line should begin to break up as it nears the river. (WeatherBell)

Sunday-Thursday

The front will be followed by clear skies and highs in the mid 60s. Skies will remain clear as temperatures build back into the 80s early next week before the next chance of rain near the end of next week

Carter Bentley
MWN Intern

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March 2023 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

March Climate Recap

Temperatures for the month of March in Memphis averaged 0.9 degrees above normal, though that departure was driven exclusively by overnight lows averaging more than two degrees above normal due to extensive cloud cover and precipitation. Those same conditions actually resulted in daytime high temperatures averaging below normal for the month.  March started out with highs in the 70's, followed by a cold front on the 8th that pushed highs into the 50's & even upper 40's by the 13th.  After a brief warm-up, another reinforcing front resulted in highs in the 40's and 50's from the 18th to 22nd and lows dropping into the mid 20's on the 19th and 20th, freezing many early blooming plants. Highs rose back above normal to the 60's to 70's for the remainder of the month, with lows in the 40's and 50's.

March's precipitation was almost three inches above normal and totaled nearly nine inches for the month. Overall, rain fell on almost half of the days during the month with a few rounds of severe weather mixed in as well. Over three inches of rain was recorded from the 1st to the 3rd.  Additional rain fell from the 8th thru the 12th, 16th-17th, 21st-22nd, and 1.6 inches fell on the 24th.  Light amounts fell from the 27th through the end of the month. Thunderstorms occurred on the 1st-3rd, 12th, 24th and 31st. Sporadic wind damage and flash flooding were reported across the metro on the morning of the 3rd and the evening of the 24th. Hail was also reported in northern Marshall County on the evening of the 1st. 

To end the month, a severe weather outbreak, producing multiple strong tornadoes from a small handful of supercell thunderstorms, affected the Memphis region on the evening of March 31. A total of 14 tornadoes touched down in the Memphis County Warning Area (CWA), which encompasses west TN, northeast AR, the Missouri bootheel, and north Mississippi. Three of these tornadoes were rated EF-3 and another five were EF-2. The graphic below summarizes their tracks.  More information from the NWS can be found here & in our recent blog post here.

Tornado tracks from March 31-April 1 in the NWS-Memphis county warning area

All NWS warnings issued and subsequent storm reports received for March 31-April 1

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 55.1 degrees (0.9 degrees above average) 

Average high temperature: 63.7 degrees (0.5 degree below average) 

Average low temperature: 46.4 degrees (2.1 degrees above average) 

Warmest temperature: 79 degrees (23rd & 26th) 

Coolest temperature: 25 degrees (19th & 20th) 

Heating Degrees Days: 318 (34 below average)

Cooling Degree Days: 20 (2 above average) 

Records set or tied: None

Comments: Five days dropped to freezing or below. A cold snap mid-month, with lows of 25 degrees on both the 19th and 20th, was damaging to early growth on plants. However, the last spring freeze of the season occurred on the 20th, only two days later than average.

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 8.67" (2.93" above average) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 14 (3.5 days above average) 

Wettest 24-hour period: 2.04" (1st-2nd) 

Snowfall: None

Records set or tied: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: West/38 mph (24th) 

Average wind: 9.5 mph 

Average relative humidity: 66%

Average sky cover: 56%

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

 

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 54.0 degrees 

Average high temperature: 64.6 degrees 

Average low temperature: 44.2 degrees 

Warmest temperature: 83.5 degrees (26th) 

Coolest temperature: 26.1 degrees (14th) 

Comments: None 

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 8.25" (automated rain gauge), 7.75" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 15

Wettest date: 1.63" (24th) (via automated gauge) 

Snowfall: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: 33 mph (occurred twice - from the northwest on the 24th and south on the 31st)

Average relative humidity: 69% 

Average barometric pressure: 30.05 in. Hg

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

 

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.13 degrees 

MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 67% 

MWN average dewpoint error: 2.13 degrees 

MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 64% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder