Typical summer pattern to start the week, cooler and wetter to finish it out

We have settled into a pretty typical summer pattern here in the Mid-South, with high temperatures in the low 90s, lows in the 70s, and high humidity. The good news is that a pattern shift late in the week looks to bring us some relief from the heat in the form of higher rain chances, as well as front which shows early signs of bringing in a bit drier air by the 4th of July holiday! 

Early week - hot with low rain chances

We start out the week hot and sunny, with Sunday looking to be in the low 90s under mostly sunny skies. Heat indexes will be in the mid to upper 90s in the afternoon, hot but not quite as bad as we’ve seen in previous days. As we start the work week, daily afternoon shower and storm chances will return. Coverage will be very isolated as we start out the week, with Monday looking to be pretty dry for most of us, although a few of us could get a rouge shower or storm in the afternoon. 

It’s basically rinse and repeat for Tuesday, with isolated showers and storms once again. However, humidity will remain uncomfortable with a south wind continuing to pump moisture into the area from the Gulf. A few more of us could get in on some showers or storms on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Highs remain pretty hot in the low 90s, but most of us will stay dry for the early part of the week. By Wednesday, more tropical moisture will be in place across the area, and coverage of showers and storms will be a bit more widespread in the afternoon. 

Late week - wetter and cooler

As we get into the latter part of the week, a few factors come into play that will influence a marked increase in precipitation chances. The first is the tropics. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has highlighted an area in the western Atlantic for potential development. This system is becoming more organized and models are forecasting a tropical depression or weak tropical storm making landfall along the GA/SC coast early in the week. Due to the flow around a large area of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic, the moisture from this tropical feature will invade most of the southeast, and may get as far west as the Memphis area, increasing rain chances later in the week. The NHC currently has a 50% chance of this system developing into a tropical depression or storm. 

A tropical system in the western Atlantic has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm before making landfall in the SC/GA area on Tuesday. (NHC)

The second factor coming into play will be a cold front, yes a cold front in early July! Not too common this time of year but I’m sure it will be very much appreciated if it does indeed bring drier air and below average temperatures. Keep in mind, we are in the peak of summer, so “below average” temperatures would likely mean highs in the low to mid 80s instead of the 90s. 

But before we get to that, we have to get through greatly increased rain chances beginning Thursday. As the front moves towards the southeast U.S., tropical moisture aided in part by the Atlantic system will interact with the front and increase our rainfall chances. Most likely scenario appears to be up to 2" of rain across the area through Saturday, though some areas with multiple rounds of storms could easily eclipse that. As dry as it is north of the state line, I think some decent rainfall will be appreciated!

The most recent European model ensemble indicates rain amounts of 1-2" through Saturday, though it could be higher in localized areas that get multiple storms. (WeatherBell)

Early 4th of July outlook

However, all that rain may make you a bit nervous for 4th of July plans! It's still a week out, but early signs indicate we could luck out and dry out (and cool down!) just in time for the holiday. Fingers crossed that the weather will be nice! Highs to end the week look to be about 10 degrees cooler than they will be to start it - in the low 80s due to increased cloud cover and moisture. Finally as we get to 4th of July, the front should have cleared some of the high dewpoints and rainfall, leaving us feeling fairly comfortable! As of right now, it’s looking like great weather to watch some fireworks. As always, stay safe in the heat, and if thunder roars, go indoors! 

The overnight run of the European model is fairly aggressive with a late week front and brings dewpoints in the 50s into our area for July 4th. Not sure it'll be that dry, but there are signs of drier and cooler air for the holiday! (WeatherBell)

Christian Bridges

MWN Social Media Intern

Erik Proseus

MWN Meteorologist

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A little of everything in this week's forecast!

Two weeks ago it was flooding rains over southeast AR and north MS. This past week, it dried up completely and the first 90 degree day of the year was followed by several more. To end the week, Tropical Storm (briefly) Claudette moved by to our south and is now moving through the Carolinas on a path back into the western Atlantic, leaving humidity in its wake, but no rain locally. This week, we'll get a little of everything!

Forecast Track of Claudette over the coming days. (NHC)

Monday - Stormy

The first official day of summer brings more humid weather with temperatures barely making it down to the mid 70s by morning. As a cold front approaches, that atmospheric moisture will combine with colder air aloft to cause instability to rise, setting the stage for numerous thunderstorms, particularly in the mid to late-afternoon hours. Given the unstable air, but a lack of strong wind aloft, a few storms could be strong to marginally severe ahead of the front. The main risk is some strong wind from thunderstorm downdrafts, as well as very heavy rain. The front moves through before sunset with lingering showers into the early overnight. Rainfall totals will be welcome, but not necessarily excessive - 1-2" seems likely.

A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather is forecast for Monday. A couple of storms could produce strong wind gusts. (NOAA/SPC)

A Slight Risk (2 of 4) of excessive rainfall or flash flooding is forecast for Monday. Rainfall totals of 1-2" are likely from mid-day Monday through midnight. (NOAA/WPC)

Tuesday-Wednesday - Cooler with low humidity

Monday's front is actually quite potent for this time of year and ushers in unseasonably dry and cooler air for Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows drop to near 60 each morning and may dip into the upper 50s Wednesday morning in rural areas around the metro. Mostly sunny skies and temperatures near 80 will greet you Tuesday afternoon - quite a nice reprieve for this time of year! It'll be a little warmer Wednesday afternoon with highs in the mid 80s but still comfortable humidity levels and abundant sunshine. Our gold star day of the week is Tuesday with Wednesday a closer second!

Forecast dewpoints for midday Tuesday are in the mid 50s in the metro - very comfortable for mid-June! (NWS)

Thursday-Friday - Muggies return

As wind shifts back to the south and hot high pressure aloft builds in, humidity rises and so do the temperatures. Slightly warmer Thursday morning lows in the upper 60s lead to highs back near 90 in the afternoon. Even muggier air is in place by Friday morning when lows are in the mid 70s and highs just above 90. Both days will be sticky enough that a few daytime showers or thunderstorms are possible, especially to our north on Friday.

Saturday-Sunday

Outdoor plans for next weekend could be in jeopardy as another front dives south into the region. With humid and warm air in place, showers and thunderstorms seem a good bet with more instances of heavy rain possible. Timing is uncertain this far out, but plan for lows in the 70s, highs in the 80s, and decent chances of rain each day.

Next weekend's forecast rainfall from the European ensemble is near 2" for the Memphis area. (WxBell)

Week 2 "Too Far Out"-look

The temperature and precipitation outlooks for the following week (leading towards July 4 weekend) appear favorable if you aren't a fan of excessive heat or rain. Odds favor below normal temperatures, which typically average in the low 90s and low 70s for highs and lows respectively, and perhaps slightly above average rain for the week, as depicted below.

The outlook for June 28-July 4 shows below average temperatures for much of the eastern U.S. (NOAA/CPC)

The outlook for June 28-July 4 shows slightly above average temperatures for the eastern U.S. (NOAA/CPC)

For the latest forecast anytime, check out the MWN Forecast in our mobile apps, or click here.

I hope all of the dads out there had a great Sunday!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder