Sunday, June 27, 2021

Typical summer pattern to start the week, cooler and wetter to finish it out

We have settled into a pretty typical summer pattern here in the Mid-South, with high temperatures in the low 90s, lows in the 70s, and high humidity. The good news is that a pattern shift late in the week looks to bring us some relief from the heat in the form of higher rain chances, as well as front which shows early signs of bringing in a bit drier air by the 4th of July holiday! 

Early week - hot with low rain chances

We start out the week hot and sunny, with Sunday looking to be in the low 90s under mostly sunny skies. Heat indexes will be in the mid to upper 90s in the afternoon, hot but not quite as bad as we’ve seen in previous days. As we start the work week, daily afternoon shower and storm chances will return. Coverage will be very isolated as we start out the week, with Monday looking to be pretty dry for most of us, although a few of us could get a rouge shower or storm in the afternoon. 

It’s basically rinse and repeat for Tuesday, with isolated showers and storms once again. However, humidity will remain uncomfortable with a south wind continuing to pump moisture into the area from the Gulf. A few more of us could get in on some showers or storms on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Highs remain pretty hot in the low 90s, but most of us will stay dry for the early part of the week. By Wednesday, more tropical moisture will be in place across the area, and coverage of showers and storms will be a bit more widespread in the afternoon. 

Late week - wetter and cooler

As we get into the latter part of the week, a few factors come into play that will influence a marked increase in precipitation chances. The first is the tropics. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has highlighted an area in the western Atlantic for potential development. This system is becoming more organized and models are forecasting a tropical depression or weak tropical storm making landfall along the GA/SC coast early in the week. Due to the flow around a large area of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic, the moisture from this tropical feature will invade most of the southeast, and may get as far west as the Memphis area, increasing rain chances later in the week. The NHC currently has a 50% chance of this system developing into a tropical depression or storm. 

A tropical system in the western Atlantic has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm before making landfall in the SC/GA area on Tuesday. (NHC)

The second factor coming into play will be a cold front, yes a cold front in early July! Not too common this time of year but I’m sure it will be very much appreciated if it does indeed bring drier air and below average temperatures. Keep in mind, we are in the peak of summer, so “below average” temperatures would likely mean highs in the low to mid 80s instead of the 90s. 

But before we get to that, we have to get through greatly increased rain chances beginning Thursday. As the front moves towards the southeast U.S., tropical moisture aided in part by the Atlantic system will interact with the front and increase our rainfall chances. Most likely scenario appears to be up to 2" of rain across the area through Saturday, though some areas with multiple rounds of storms could easily eclipse that. As dry as it is north of the state line, I think some decent rainfall will be appreciated!

The most recent European model ensemble indicates rain amounts of 1-2" through Saturday, though it could be higher in localized areas that get multiple storms. (WeatherBell)

Early 4th of July outlook

However, all that rain may make you a bit nervous for 4th of July plans! It's still a week out, but early signs indicate we could luck out and dry out (and cool down!) just in time for the holiday. Fingers crossed that the weather will be nice! Highs to end the week look to be about 10 degrees cooler than they will be to start it - in the low 80s due to increased cloud cover and moisture. Finally as we get to 4th of July, the front should have cleared some of the high dewpoints and rainfall, leaving us feeling fairly comfortable! As of right now, it’s looking like great weather to watch some fireworks. As always, stay safe in the heat, and if thunder roars, go indoors! 

The overnight run of the European model is fairly aggressive with a late week front and brings dewpoints in the 50s into our area for July 4th. Not sure it'll be that dry, but there are signs of drier and cooler air for the holiday! (WeatherBell)

Christian Bridges
MWN Social Media Intern

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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