How does April 2020 stack up with past Aprils? And what is in store for May?

Over the last week we saw a decent amount of sun, as well as some rain and thunderstorms. We saw some great pictures and videos of hail on April 29th over the area, despite a lack of thunder in small showers. The temperatures stayed pretty pleasant this month, and it looks like that trend might continue as we head into May. 

As April winds down, where do we stand with respect to temperature and precipitation? Looking at the preliminary monthly climate report from NWS Memphis (below), we sit a couple degrees below normal (2.6 degrees to be exact). The precipitation total for this month is 5.57", which means we are slightly above average against our normal April amount of 5.25".

The preliminary monthly climate report from NWS Memphis. 

Friday and Saturday
Overnight lows going into Friday will drop into the low 50s under clear skies. Friday high clouds will move in as a high tops out in the upper 70s, a signal of a warming trend as we head into the weekend. The wind on Friday will be out of the southwest at about 8 mph. Friday night lows will only drop to the lower 60s. Saturday temperatures will top out in the lower 80s under partly cloudy skies and with a strong southerly wind. Saturday night lows will only drop to the mid 60s with partly cloudy skies sticking with us.

Sunday and Monday
As we move into Sunday we will again be partly cloudy, having highs top out in the low 80s, capping off a warn but dry weekend. Sunday night lows will drop into the mid 60s with a slight chance of a shower. Monday will be very similar to Sunday as it will be partly cloudy and top out in the low 80s. The only difference is that on Monday there will be a slight chance of showers all day. Overnight lows heading into Tuesday will again only get down to the mid 60s as more clouds move in.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday
On Tuesday a low pressure system is forecasted to move through, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures top out near 80, making way for a cold front from the low pressure system. This cold front will bring falling temperatures overnight, into the upper 50s. Moving into Wednesday the cold front will likely bring pleasant temperatures in the low 70s along with partly cloudy skies. Wednesday night lows will likely drop all the way down to the low 50s. Heading into Friday, temperatures will again be rather pleasant as we will top out around 70 under partly sunny skies.

This surface map is valid early Wednesday morning after a cold front moves through (Weather Predictions Center [WPC]). This cold front will be followed by a high pressure system and below normal temperatures.

May Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
As I mentioned before it looks like May will start out slightly below normal. From a new release of the monthly climate prediction from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), they are predicting around normal temperatures and slightly above average precipitation for the month.

The temperature outlook for the month of May shows near normal temperature for the month of May in Memphis. (NOAA/CPC)

The precipitation outlook for the month of May shows slightly above normal precipitation in Memphis. (NOAA/CPC)

Max Magness
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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A springtime pattern means several of storms in the next week

Rest of Today into Thursday

A dreary start to our Hump Day. Clouds have been on the increase today as a warm front continues to push north from the Gulf of Mexico. This will turn the winds more southerly giving us a very breezy afternoon with gusts up to 25-30 mph by tonight. Southerly wind will increase our moisture allowing for scattered showers to move in as we head into the evening time.

A low-pressure system will move eastward through the southeast bringing a cold front with showers and storms during the overnight hours. These storms may be on the stronger side with gusty winds, possible hail, and heavy downpours, but thankfully the greatest chance for severe weather will remain to the south of the metro area where more humid and unstable air will reside. Our greatest risk for a strong storm appears to be in the midnight timeframe, plus or minus an hour or two.

Behind the storms, showers will linger into Thursday morning as the low pressure system itself moves over. The additional cloud cover and continued breezy southwest wind will keep our lows fairly warm and muggy in the lower 60s. As the cold front moves on, winds will shift to a more westerly pattern but remain strong with gusts up to 30-35 mph into the afternoon. Throughout the day temperatures will not change much with afternoon highs struggling to reach 70.

Overnight European model data showing a low pressure system moving through the Mid-South Wednesday (4/22) through Thursday (4/23). (PivotalWeather.com) 

Friday

Skies will begin to partially clear and winds will calm Thursday evening. Overnight lows will fall back into the mid-60s. Into Friday, clouds will be on the increase as another system approach from the Plains. Warmer temperatures return to the region with highs in the mid-70s as winds become southerly once more. Showers will be isolated at first Friday afternoon but become increasingly more widespread by Friday evening. Overnight, showers and thunderstorms associate with the second cold front will push through the area. Some of these storms may be on the stronger side producing hail, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. The greatest chance for a strong storm during Friday’s event will be south of the city.

European Model 6:00am run showing a second low pressure system moving through the southeast Friday (4/24) into Saturday (4/23) morning. (PivotalWeather.com)

Saturday thru Monday

Saturday will start off as another dreary day as clouds and isolated showers linger in the morning, however, throughout the day the moisture will move out of the area giving us a mostly dry afternoon. Highs will stay cool struggling to reach 70, but thankfully mostly of us will see at least some sunshine by Saturday afternoon. Overnight lows will be on the chillier side as they fall back down near 50. Sunday looks to be very pleasant with partly cloudy skies and highs continuing to stay cool in the upper 60s. We stay dry with a mix of sun and clouds into Monday with afternoon highs warming back into the lower 70s. If you are planning on doing yard work Sunday and Monday will be your best option!

Tuesday and Wednesday

The models are suggesting that another upper level trough will move through the area early next week initiating yet another round of showers and thunderstorms. They are struggling to come into agreement over when exactly it will come through, but Tuesday into Wednesday seems to be our best chance. Clouds and rain chances will increase throughout Tuesday bringing more heavy rain and gusty winds. Tuesday afternoon will be warm and muggy with highs warming back into the mid-70s. Most of the shower and storm activity should move out of the area early Wednesday morning giving us a mostly pleasant afternoon with decreasing clouds and highs in the mid-70s.

The European model showing temperatures and wind from Monday (4/27)  night at midnight through Wednesday (4/29) night at midnight. (PivotalWeather.com)

Allison Paige
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder