Warming trend to finish the week, t'storms expected Friday night

We have had quite the temperature roller coaster over the past few days with this trend expected to continue. Just one week ago, highs were nearing the 60s while Monday and Tuesday only had highs in the lower 40s. For right now, we are going back up on our temperature roller coaster as highs will reach near 70 this weekend.

We know a lot of people have questions about the forecast over the next few days, especially for this weekend, so we will get right to it.

Rest of Today

Cloud coverage is expected to continue increasing into the afternoon hours. Latest satellite images show clouds increasing to our north and west and drifting towards our area. Clouds will hang around into the overnight hours, and combined with a south wind, will help to keep temps a little warmer than we've seen recently overnight. Lows will reach near 46. 

Latest (around 1 PM 11/28/2018) GOES 16 visible satellite loop. (College of DuPage)

Tomorrow

Into tomorrow, we will begin to shift into a somewhat-muggier period. We aren't talking summertime mugginess, but it will be a little more humid than we have seen recently. Mostly cloudy skies and warmer conditions can be expected as highs near 63. Scattered rain chances are possible throughout the day, with rain chances increasing slightly. 

Friday

Cloudiness will continue into Friday with scattered showers being possible throughout the day. Highs will near 70, with breezy winds out of the south making things feel even muggier.

Heavier showers and a few potentially strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the overnight hours on Friday. A few thunderstorms could develop Friday evening, but timing suggests that the strongest storms, if we get any, would occur overnight.

The Storm Prediction Center currently includes Memphis in a "slight" risk (level 2/5) with surrounding areas either in the "marginal" (1/5) or "slight" risk categories as well. (NOAA/SPC)

All hazards are possible and cannot be ruled out at this time, but the main concerns appear to be periods of heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts. We will continue to keep an eye on things over the next few days, so be sure to keep up with us on our social media pages (linked below) for the most up-to-date information.

Saturday

Oh Saturday. Saturday is a busy day for many in Memphis with the St. Jude Marathon series taking place (I will be running in the half marathon too!). There is some good news and bad news for runners participating in this year's races depending what running conditions you typically like to run in. Lingering showers are possible during the early morning hours of race day, but are expected to clear out around or before 9 AM-ish. Clouds will likely hang around for the majority of the morning during all of the races, although some clouds may begin to clear out as the morning progresses. As for our temps, temps will remain in the low 60s around race time but be pretty muggy as well. Additionally, winds will be pretty breezy (10-20 mph), which could help out with the muggy temps but may cause you to be running into the wind at times.

Regardless, severe weather is not expected to linger that far into the morning hours. Be prepared for warm and muggy conditions throughout the race with light rain possible before 9 AM.

NAM model loop shows heavy showers during the Friday overnight hours, with showers clearing out during the morning hours. (TropicalTidbits)

For the rest of the day, skies will continue clearing after the morning's cloudiness. Highs will reach the lower 70s by the afternoon.

Sunday into Next Week

Somewhat "cooler" weather is expected to return to the Mid-South on Sunday and continue into the beginning of next week. Luckily, we are not expecting another frigid cold snap, just highs lowers 60s on Sunday and 50s for the first half of next week. Overnight temps will dip into the 40s.

While widespread showers aren't expected, we could see a few isolated showers Monday and Tuesday. Forecasting showers this far out should be taken with a grain of salt, so I will leave it at that. Enjoy the somewhat fall-ish weather coming next week!

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist

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Say good-bye to 60s; colder weather is on the way

Hopefully everyone got to enjoy the period of warmer weather, especially since it happened to fall during the holiday period. That said, tonight's cold front is going to quickly bring an end to that. Brace yourselves, grab the jacket, and check out the upcoming forecast for this week!

The European model (ECMWF) shows that by 6am Monday we will see temperatures around 34 degrees. (WxBell)

Tonight

Very windy conditions are accompanying tonight's cold front thanks to such a strong temperature gradient. Source: National Weather Service

The small band of rain from today's cold front is going to be scooting out of here very fast. In fact, rain wraps up early this evening. The big topic is what's behind it: very windy conditions. With such a strong pressure gradient associated with the front, plan on hanging on to more than just your hat. Gusts will be over 30 mph through a portion of the night. Skies will be quickly clearing overnight as well. Accompanying these wind conditions will be a very fast cool down. How fast of a cool down? Well, at 5pm the temperature was 64 degrees. Tonight's low is set for 33 degrees. That's a 31 degree temperature change in about 12 hours. 

Monday

Sunshine returns for your Monday, but make sure you have the coat as you are running out the door to work. After tonight's low of 33 degrees, it will be a struggle to warm during the day and temps will only climb to 44 degrees. Don't forget about that wind, too. Winds will still be blowing, but not as badly as tonight. Look for a northwest wind around 13 mph to make for a blustery feeling. Monday night will be very chilly: the coldest night of the week with a low of 27, thanks to effective cooling due to minimal wind and no cloud cover.

Tuesday through Thursday

The weather takes a "chill pill" through the mid week. Temperatures will slowly be on the rise (key word slowly). On Tuesday, look for another day with highs in the 40s (but upper 40s at least). Wednesday we climb into the lower 50s and finally by Thursday we climb back into the lower 60s. That slow warm up will be a result of the Canadian high pressure shifting to our east, allowing a south wind  to return to the region. Unfortunately, along with it will come some moisture to feed some rain, but Thursday will only be a minimal chance of a few showers. The best rain chances hold off until Thursday night/Friday and into the weekend. All the while, lows through this time period will also slowly be on the rise, starting in the upper 20s for Tuesday night and finishing off in the lower 40s by Thursday night.

The American climate model (CFS) shows well below average surface temperatures for the upcoming 5 days. (WxBell)

Friday

Thanks to the input of moisture with the return of our southerly wind and the combination of weak shortwaves that act as triggers, we will see the chance for stray showers. With the return of rain also comes with warmer weather. Look for a high of 65 degrees. Friday night will feature cloudy skies, mild weather (low of 55), and a chance of showers.

Saturday and Sunday

Models place a strong low in Missouri Saturday morning to mid-day, bringing rain and potential storms to Memphis. (Tropical Tidbits)

Models are coming into agreement for timing of a strong low pressure system to bring a cold front with accompanying rain and possible storms Saturday, with the best lock in for timing being earlier in the day, at the moment. That means for those prepping to run the St.Jude Memphis Marathon, you may want to start looking into a great pair of swimming googles. With such a strong system and a low located around the Missouri region, we will be keeping an eye on this event, but will refrain from mentioning severe weather at the moment (wait, did I just mention it??). Look for a high in the mid 60s Saturday (which could change if we get any change on arrival time of the front). Saturday night, skies will remain mostly to partly cloudy as temps start to drop, with a low foretasted in the mid 40s.

Sunday should be much less of a headache weather-wise unless the front slow significantly. Partly cloudy skies and a high in the upper 50s for now.

Reggie Roakes
MWN Meteorologist

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