December 2016 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

December Recap

After the warmest autumn on record, with the previous three months all ending up in the top 10 warmest respectively, December's average temperature was just a bit above normal. However, the month didn't necessarily "seem" average with mild days offset by a couple of Arctic blasts, interspersed with a couple days in the mid 70s. Perhaps the best example was the 17th-18th, which featured a high in the mid 70s on the 17th, a sharp front that dropped temperatures over 30 degrees in an hour that evening, and a high the next day in the mid 30s.

With the wild temperature swings, the pattern was not-unexpectedly wet and occasionally stormy as well as precipitation ended above normal for the month. The wet month helped a great deal in improving drought conditions to end 2016. Severe weather occurred on two days. On the 17th, the aforementioned front brought scattered reports of wind damage to the metro, particularly over north MS, as well as multiple reports of funnels during the evening. Trained spotters indicated that tornadoes touched down in Tate and Marshall Counties. To end the month, a severe thunderstorm containing hail tracked across Shelby County on the 28th with reports of up to quarter-size stones.

@NWSMemphis Another one. pic.twitter.com/ky41uPTyho

— Phil Baker (@philbaker1) December 28, 2016

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature
Average temperature: 44.5 degrees (0.9 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 52.9 degrees (0.8 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 36.2 degrees (1.1 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 77 degrees (26th)
Coolest temperature: 15 degrees (19th)
Records set or tied: Record high (76 degrees) tied on the 17th.
Comments: None

Precipitation
Monthly total: 7.33" (1.59" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 16 (6.3 days above normal)
Wettest 24-hour period: 2.18" (23rd-24th)
Snowfall: Trace (17th, 18th)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: In one month, abundant precipitation improved drought conditions from "severe" to "abnormally dry," a two-category improvement.

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: Northwest/49 mph (17th)
Average wind: 8.4 mph
Average relative humidity: 70%
Average sky cover: 70%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature
Average temperature: 43.6 degrees
Average high temperature: 52.4 degrees
Average low temperature: 33.7 degrees
Warmest temperature: 78.1 degrees (26th)
Coolest temperature: 13.6 degrees (20th)
Comments: None

Precipitation
Monthly total: 6.85" (automated rain gauge), 7.06" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 18
Wettest date: 1.84" (24th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: Southwest/24 mph (17th)
Average relative humidity: 78%
Average barometric pressure: 30.22 in. Hg

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.32 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 60%
MWN average dewpoint error: 3.15 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 51%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Increasing the Friday snow totals a bit...

Thought we had a pretty solid forecast going last night with a dusting to possibly an inch of snow on Friday. That was until the Thursday morning model data started coming in... It appears now like earlier snow totals were conservative. Multiple models, including the American GFS, European, 2 of 3 flavors of the North American, and now the first high resolution model to start seeing the event (the Rapid Refresh model), are all indicating higher totals than first anticipated.

I'll cut to the chase: the MWN Forecast, which you can find on our website or mobile app, has been updated to include snow totals of 1-2". A couple of these models actually indicate that 2-3" is possible in a narrow east-west band that will likely end up somewhere in the metro - between Tipton County, TN and Tate County, MS. There will likely be a tight gradient between the heaviest snow and very little - perhaps a county. Unfortunately, that small scale type feature is very hard to pinpoint until the event is in progress. So the safe bet, which yesterday would've been an outlier, is 1-2" on average for most of the metro area.

The GFS model from 12Z (6am) Thursday morning shows the east-west band of heavier snow across AR and into the metro. The exact position of this band (either as shown or perhaps a bit further north or south) will play a role in the exact snow totals. Those directly under that band have the POTENTIAL for up to 3" of snow.  The MWN Forecast has 1-2" average across the metro. (PivotalWx)

A few things to know:

A band of snow will move rapidly east across AR after midnight with snow starting in the metro between 3-5am. The steadiest snow is expected between sunrise and late morning with flurries or light snow continuing into the afternoon. Flurries should be done by early evening at the latest. Most accumulation would occur between 6am-noon.

The snow will not be wet enough to build a snowman. Darn! Actually, that is part of what contributes to higher amounts. A dry, fluffy snow accumulates more quickly as it doesn't get packed down, or settle, much. However, wind will be blowing at 10-15 mph from the north, so the snow will be blown around quite a bit as well.

Temperatures will be very cold, about 23-26° all day. Combined with the wind, it'll feel like 10-15° out. Not pleasant!

Given the new information, we don't really now how school systems and other organized institutions will handle the situation. My guess is we may not know until morning. As quickly as the forecast ramped up, it COULD go back down.

Stay tuned to our social media feeds for the latest information. We'll keep you updated throughout the event as well.

Happy Snow Day!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder