Severe weather update - 5pm CDT

10:00PM UPDATE: Storm Prediction Center has once again moved the MODERATE risk south and away from the Memphis area. We'll just have to see how this one plays out. Any strong weather should be between 1am and 6am and would likely be in the form of hail or a damaging wind gust, with tornadoes a minimal threat.

Original post (5pm):



The Storm Prediction Center has modified the risk of severe weather for the Mid-South for tonight (see above graphic) and now includes all of north MS under a MODERATE RISK, right up to the TN state line. The SLIGHT RISK now encompasses most of west TN. This is in response to the flip-flopping computer models now bringing the aforementioned warm sector closer to the metro area tonight as the stronger low appears as though it will track across Arkansas. The greatest threat will be after midnight through about 6am Saturday. With this situation as dynamic as it has been, any slight shift could have big effects on the resulting weather scenario.


Be advised that the possibility of severe weather does exist, including the low threat of tornadoes, overnight and be prepared should it occur. NOAA Weather Radios should be programmed and in working order. There is also still time to sign up for severe weather warnings by email (even to your PDA) with WXLIVE! Severe Weather - you'll get the warning as soon as the National Weather Service issues it. MWN StormView Radar will have the most recent radar imagery throughout the night.

Mt. Redoubt volcano continues to erupt in Alaska

Those of us thousands of miles away may not pay much attention to a volcano in Alaska, but Mt. Redoubt is not playing around with the folks southwest of Anchorage. Since last weekend, Redoubt has erupted numerous times, at least a handful of these eruptions have spewed ash and steam 50,000 feet or higher into the sky. The latest eruption occurred at 11:40am CDT today (8:40am Alaksa DT) with the ash going up to 50,000 feet once again.

NWS Doppler radar captured this eruption, which I have linked above. Notice the spot just left of the image center as it loops and you'll see the higher reflectivities (brighter colors) appear in a circular fashion - that's Redoubt blowing her top! Ash suspended below 30,000 feet is staying west of Anchorage (located northeast of the volcano and just above and right of the image center), but above 30,000 feet, the ash is spreading towards Anchorage, disrupting air travel significantly. If any of that ash gets in a jet engine, you've got real trouble. The last major eruption sequence for Redoubt was 20 years ago at it lasted for 5 months! It will be interesting to see how long this keeps up this time.

For more on Redoubt's activity, visit this exceptional link to the Alaska Volcano Observatory's Mt. Redoubt page.