Tropical Storm Arthur begins the Atlantic hurricane season

Likely short-lived and barely a tropical storm, Arthur formed over the northwest Caribbean Sea, at noon CDT today and within an hour had already moved across the coast of Belize moving westward into the Yucatan Peninsula. Mainly a rain-maker for Central America, there is a slight chance that the remnants of Arthur could re-appear over the Bay of Campeche after crossing the Yucatan and re-form into a Tropical Storm again before moving into the Mexican mainland.


While the storm itself is of little consequence outside the small area it affects, it does signal the beginning of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season, which is predicted to be above average by both NOAA and tropical prediction expert Dr. William Gray of Colorado State. NOAA is calling for a 90% chance of a near or above normal season in terms of tropical activity with a 60-70% chance of 12-16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 major (Cat 3+) hurricanes (the yearly average is 11, 6 and 2, respectively). Dr. Gray predicts a "well above-average" season for 2008, calling for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes, and an nearly 70% chance that a najor hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) will strike the U.S. coastline this season. The next 6 months will tell!

Hot conditions on the way!

Yesterday sure was a nice break from the recent heat. With cloud cover hanging around in the wake of a slow-moving cold front, temps were steady in the 70-72 range all day. After several days in the upper 80s to lower 90s and a miserably humid Memorial Day weekend, it was a welcome relief!

As the clouds move out this morning, the late May sunshine will warm things up quickly with an upper-level ridge of high pressure rebuilding over the region. This will mean a return to hot weather, with a transition day today (mid 80s) and hot by tomorrow (low 90s). High temps look to remain near or above 90 through the end of the extended forecast, with the possible exception of Sunday - the only day we may see some rain or t'storms in the next 5-6 days. In fact, the middle of next week might see highs approaching 95 with morning lows only in the mid 70s in the city. Whoa!! It's too early in the year for this kind of heat!

On a separate note, Hurricane Seasons begins on Sunday and, right in time, extended range model guidance is indicating possible tropical development by mid-week in the Gulf of Mexico. See graphic below that is valid Wednesday night, June 4.