February 2022 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

February Climate Recap

A cool January continued right into February, which can best be described as cold, wet, and memorable! Though there were a couple of short warm spells with highs in the 60s and 70s, the average temperature for the month was more than 2 degrees below normal, with low temperatures accounting for most of that deficit, averaging over 3.5 degrees below normal. There were two periods in particular during the month that were significantly below average - one that started with a generational ice storm, and another late in the month that had a bit of snow. 

The "memorable" event is still in the cleanup stages as perhaps the most impactful ice storm since 1994 hit the city on the 3rd. Nearly 2" of liquid water fell with temperatures right at to just below freezing that day. Overall, most areas saw anywhere from 0.25" to 0.75" of ice accumulation and many reports of thunder-sleet at times as well. Tens of thousands of trees were damaged, leading to a massive cleanup effort that continues into mid-March. In addition, nearly a quarter million Memphis Light Gas and Water customers lost power, with the overall restoration effort taking a week and a half. 

A birds-eye view of the city after the generational ice storm on February 3. Photo courtesy of The Daily Memphian/Patrick Lantrip. Used with permission.

As of noon, over 100,000 @MLGW customers are without power, and limbs and lines are still falling. Please stay away from downed lines and exercise caution walking around ice laden trees! #memice pic.twitter.com/9QGa6KjGO5

— MemphisWeather.net (@memphisweather1) February 3, 2022

In addition to heavy precipitation early in the month, thunderstorms also dropped an inch of rain on the 17th and produced additional widely scattered tree damage due to wind, then another very wet week occurred starting on the 22nd with over 4.5" of rain falling through the 27th. Despite being the shortest month, it certainly provided plenty of impactful weather events!

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 44.0 degrees (2.1 degrees below average) 

Average high temperature: 54.9 degrees (0.6 degrees below average) 

Average low temperature: 33.0 degrees (3.7 degrees below average) 

Warmest temperature: 75 degrees (16th) 

Coolest temperature: 22 degrees (4th, 5th, 6th) 

Heating Degrees Days: 582 (50 above average)

Cooling Degree Days: 0 (2 below average) 

Records set or tied: None

Comments: 14 days saw temperatures fall below freezing which is 4 above average

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 8.02" (3.47 " above average) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 10 (0.1 days above average) 

Wettest 24-hour period: 2.31" (23rd-24th) 

Snowfall: Trace (1.0" below average)

Records set or tied: Tied record daily snowfall - Trace (23rd)

Comments: A trace of snow was recorded on the 3rd, 4th, and 23rd. 0.71" of freezing rain accumulated on the 3rd.

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: Southwest/49 mph (17th) 

Average wind: 9.0 mph 

Average relative humidity: 64% 

Average sky cover: 50%

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

 

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 42.3 degrees 

Average high temperature: 54.2 degrees 

Average low temperature: 30.6 degrees 

Warmest temperature: 72.8 degrees (11th) 

Coolest temperature: 17.6 degrees (5th) 

Comments: None 

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 7.14" (automated rain gauge), 8.40"(manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 9

Wettest date: 2.03" (22nd) (via automated gauge) 

Snowfall: Trace

Comments: 0.3" of freezing rain on the 3rd. Traces of snow occurred on the 3rd and 4th.

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: South to southwest/29 mph (16th & 17th)

Average relative humidity: 71% 

Average barometric pressure: 30.22 in. Hg

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

 

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.80  degrees 

MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 52% 

MWN average dewpoint error: 2.77 degrees 

MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 53% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

 

Climate Outlook - March 2022

The March climate outlook for the United States from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Above average temperatures are forecast for a large area from the Mid-Atlantic through the Ohio River Valley and southeast U.S. into the south-central U.S with strongest chances in the Deep South and Florida. Below average temperatures are expected across the Northern Rockies and west coast. Odds favor above average temperatures (46%) for Memphis over the course of the month versus a 22% chance of below average temperatures. The average temperature for March is 54.2 degrees.

Precipitation is expected to be above normal from the Northeast U.S. into the Midwest and south through the Mississippi River Valley, as well as the Pacific Northwest. Highest odds of wet conditions are in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Below average precipitation is forecast for the Rio Grande Valley into the Desert Southwest, as well as in Florida. For Memphis, odds favor above average precipitation (46%) versus a 21% chance of below average precipitation, which historically averages 5.74 inches in March.

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Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app 

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Winter's last gasp... snow is in the Friday night forecast

UPDATED - 3/10/2022, 7:00PM

The snow forecast remains on track for Friday evening and as discussed in last night's post seen below. I'll skip the setup, which is discussed a bit more in the post Wednesday night and cut right to the chase.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire metro from 6pm Friday to 6am Saturday, which means this winter event is likely to be an inconvenience, but not necessarily a threat to life and property. 

The NWS Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) indicates a likelihood of minor impacts across the Memphis metro, meaning the snow could result in an inconvenience to daily life.

Rain chances increase by late afternoon with rain changing to snow from west to east around 6pm as temperatures drop from their high near 60 degrees to the mid 30s. (This is a bit earlier than mentioned last night.) We'll get a few hours of snowfall before it starts to taper off by midnight, with a few flurries sticking around into the wee hours of Saturday as temperatures continue to fall into the 20s on strong northwest wind.

Forecast radar from the mid-day run of the HRRR model, which shows snow moving through the Memphis area between about 6pm Friday and 1am Saturday. (WeatherModels)

Snowfall totals will likely be around or just above 1" in the immediate metro with potential for up up to 2" more northeast of the city and up the I-40 corridor further into west TN. This amount of snow is most likely on grass and exposed surfaces, not on roads, which should fare decently given temperatures in the mid 50s to near 60 in the early afternoon hours and early day sunshine. During the period of heaviest snow in the evening hours, some accumulation of wet snow or slush is possible on residential and secondary roads, as well as overpasses and bridges. Main roads and interstates could also get a bit of slush if the precipitation is heavy enough during the height of the event. 

The NWS forecasts about a 40-50% chance of an inch of snow, though the consensus of available model data is running about 1.0-1.5" for the event. (NWS)

You'll want to be cautious of the road conditions Saturday morning, as temperatures plummet through the 20s overnight. Despite wind that will help dry roads, slushy areas or standing water could flash freeze. Sunshine and temperatures in the mid 30s will be very chilly Saturday, but it will be enough to take care of any slick spots on the roads.

Stay with us on social media throughout the event for the latest conditions and last minute updates! Links are at the bottom of this post or use the free MWN app to follow our social channels.

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ORIGINAL POST - 3/9/2022, 8:00PM

Just when you thought winter was over....

Last week's beautiful weather gave way to a chilly and damp day Monday, but the sun shone again today and temperatures are warming with more sunshine tomorrow as highs reach the lower 60s. Friday will start off like a decent spring day with sunshine and decent temperatures again... but what's lurking just over the horizon is "Third Winter," which will last for about 48 hours. We can then begin another warm-up and "The Pollening" as we head into real spring! Tonight's blog will focus specifically on those 48 hours, and really mainly the first 6-12 of them... and boy will they be eventful! 

Friday overview

After reaching about 60 degrees on Friday, a cold front will move through the Mid-South. You'll note a wind shift to the northwest and gusty wind as skies cloud up. Temperatures drop very quickly behind the front - falling through the 50s in the afternoon, and then the 40s and 30s in the evening. Initial rainfall that starts by early evening is likely to change quickly over to snow, most likely by around 9pm. Snow could be steady to maybe even heavy at times for a couple of hours before tapering off as quickly as it arrived, shortly after midnight. The 10pm to midnight timeframe is our best educated guess at when the steadiest accumulating snow will fall.  If you are heading to the Grizzlies game that evening, it could look like a snow globe outside after the streamers fall inside.

After the snow...

Temperatures will continue to fall on gusty wind and bottom out Saturday morning in the low to mid 20s. The sun will be back out Saturday, but cold air pouring in from the northwest on gusty wind will likely keep the mercury from reaching 40 degrees Saturday afternoon. (And in mid-March, with full sunshine, it's pretty hard to stay below 40!) Another cold night is in store Saturday night with lows in the mid 20s once again, but we'll start to moderate during the day with continued sunshine and high pressure moving to our east, allowing southerly wind to warm us into the upper 50s. 

So let's answer some questions about our brief visit from "Third Winter"

Q: How much snow will we get? Any ice?

A: If it weren't falling on warm roads and ground, it might amount to a couple of inches. Instead, roads are probably going to survive pretty well as most of the snow melts on contact. Grass/mulch/bare ground and exposed objects could see an inch of snow cover, perhaps more north of the Bluff City, and likely less in north MS. The cold air arrives so quickly (near the ground and aloft) that ice is not expected.

Forecast snow totals for Friday evening from the NWS (as of Wednesday afternoon)

Q: What is the confidence factor in this event?

A: We're still a couple days out, but models are pretty well in alignment, and all have been poking at this event for a few days now. Confidence is high that we'll see snow and the overall timing (primarily 9pm-midnight), and medium in the amounts. I'm a bit less confident it what it will look like Saturday morning when we wake up.

"Boom" forecast for Friday evening from the NWS (as of Wednesday afternoon). These amounts have a 10% chance of occurrence and are considered a "reasonable worst case."

Q: What about freezing overnight with lows well down into the 20s?

A: That is one of my biggest questions marks. I expect that most roads will be fine. There will be lots of wind and cold but dry air once the system departs Friday night. Some areas that get puddles before the snow starts could "flash freeze" overnight as the temperature drops so quickly. If you will be out early Saturday morning, watch for pockets or patches of ice. I would not cancel any travel plans Saturday if you are headed somewhere warmer (and I also won't blame you!).

Q: Why, Erik?? It's spring break weekend!

A: I know right? I'm in sales not production, and there are times the family goes hungry... 

It's honestly not completely unusual to get a "last gasp" of winter, including snowfall, in early March. This is a bit late, but the latest recorded inch of snow is March 29. And despite the fact that any measurable accumulation on Friday will set a snowfall record for the date, there are actually four events on record that occurred later in March that dropped more than 4 inches. FOUR INCHES! So while it might be rare, it's certainly not unprecedented. So let's get it over with and move on to...

Monitor our social media feeds for the latest information and any changes between now and Friday night. 

Erik Proseus

MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder