Spring break arrives - wish the weather were better!

The past couple of days have been cold relatively speaking - compared to both early March averages and recent history - but that trend ends for a few days as the pattern turns wet once again.

As high pressure shifts east, wind has turned around to the south and will be quite breezy today with afternoon gusts to 25 mph. However, that will help to push the mercury back into the 60s despite more cloud cover than previous days. Heading into the overnight, the next system to our west starts to organize and the southerly flow (resulting in increased moisture from the Gulf) brings a chance of showers before dawn Saturday morning.

With high pressure along the southeast coast, southerly flow over the Mid-South means increasing moisture and chances of rain. Low pressure over west TX will move east, grazing just south of the metro Saturday night. Surface map valid midnight tonight. (NWS)

Our computer models that are normally pretty reliable within 3-4 days have been struggling with the pattern for the first weekend of Spring Break. There are still some differences, but all now forecast a weak low pressure system to move by just south of Memphis Saturday night. The differences lie in the strength of the low and placement of heavier rainfall. While Saturday looks to feature scattered showers (likely not all-day rain), overnight Saturday night likely will be the wettest period of the weekend. The axis of heaviest precipitation will likely be across north MS/AL, where over 2" of rain could fall this weekend. In the Memphis area, an inch would not be unexpected and also would not result in additional flooding issues given the recent dry days of late, allowing the ground to dry some and the smaller rivers/creeks to return to normal levels. With the track of the low just to our south, we can't rule out a few thunderstorms, but most will be to our south and southwest, as will any chances of severe weather. Temperatures should also remain mild with highs Saturday in the lower 60s.

The severe weather outlook for Saturday and Saturday night shows that a few thunderstorms will be possible in the metro (lightest green), but the severe weather chances (darker green to yellow) will remain south of the area. (SPC)

As the low departs Sunday, "backlash" cloudiness and scattered showers will be possible as an upper level low pushes the system to the east, but brings those rain chances as well. Temperatures will also remain in the 50s all day and a north wind will kick up quite a bit by afternoon. Overall, not a real promising way to start an extended break for most of the school kids in the area!

Total precipitation through Sunday evening as forecast by the NWS. It shows an inch or a little more in the Memphis area, while I believe we could trend down a bit more and end up with a little less than that. Saturday night appears to be the wettest part of the weekend, but neither Saturday or Sunday will likely be completely dry. (WxBell)

If you don't like the rain on Spring Break, then there is good news - the rest of the week looks to be dry. However... cooler air arrives again, lasting much of the week. Lows will be back down into the 30s with highs only in the 50s from Monday through Thursday. We should start to see a warming trend heading into the final weekend of the break, though it could also become wet again. Sunny and 70° just isn't in the forecast quite yet - but we'll be there soon enough! Early March weather always tends to feature a few surprises as the seasons really start to change.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Typical early spring week ahead - warm rain, cold sun, then warm rain again!

The past few days have reminded of how beautiful early spring can be in the Mid-South! Crisp mornings have given way to mild afternoons as highs have reached the 60s. Outside of some afternoon clouds today, sunny skies were a welcome sight after deluges to end the month of February.

Tulip magnolias or saucer magnolias...not tulip poplars.😉🌸 https://t.co/NZ31h2llru

— Joyce Peterson (@MemphoNewsLady) March 4, 2018

The week starts wet

Unfortunately, a beautiful weekend leads to a rainy Sunday night and Monday, but at least rainfall amounts will be "tolerable" as compared to, well, seemingly every time it rained last month, but especially earlier this week! With 4.64" of rain in less than 48 hours - from Tuesday evening through Thursday late morning - February rainfall shot into the record books with an official total of 13.43" - more than 2" higher than the previous record set in the late 19th century!

Total amounts over the next 24 hours should be in the 1/2" range with the steadiest rainfall occurring from around midnight tonight through rush hour Monday morning. Scattered showers, and a possible afternoon thunderstorm, are expected Monday until a front arrives in the early evening to bring the rain to an end.

Forecast rainfall amounts through 6pm Monday from the high-resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) model. Memphis is forecast to receive about 1/2" according to this, and most other, model data. (NOAA/SPC)

Mid-Week Forecast

Behind the departing system, Tuesday looks decent with mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 60s, though a brisk northwest wind is a harbinger of things to come in the temperature department. Reminding us that cold spells in early March are not rare, the mid-week period will feature highs barely above 50° and lows dropping close to freezing in the city and likely below freezing in rural areas. Hopefully not much damage is done to budding plants and flowers that have flourished on the above average temperatures and abundant rainfall in February!

Be watching for national weather news to feature another significant storm for the northeastern U.S. during the mid-week period, which will help to drive that colder air on its western flank down into our region!

As another Nor'Easter rocks the major metros in the northeastern U.S. with wind and snow later this week, cold air on its backside will dive south into the south-central U.S. courtesy of building high pressure of Canadian origin. (PivotalWx)

Early look at Spring Break weekend

As we get towards the first weekend of Spring Break for many, the thermometer starts to climb again, but so do the rain chances. Early indications are that next weekend could be a wet one once again. Yes, another potentially wet Saturday that have come far too often this year! I hope you enjoyed this weekend!

River flooding

While significant land-based flooding was avoided during this past week's heavy rain, the rivers are high, and climbing. On the Mississippi River at Memphis, where flood stage is 34', the river is at 38' as of 4pm and peaking near 39' over the next few days. It is projected to remain above flood stage for at least the next couple of weeks. For comparison, this crest would be just short of the 39.6' crest reached in 2016, but well short of the 48' it reached in 2011 when national media "waded" in the river at the foot of Beale Street. However, if the river rises a few inches above the projected crest, which is possible, this year's spring flood would rank in the top 10 historically at Memphis. Water levels on tributaries like the Looshatchie and Wolf Rivers will remain high the next couple weeks as high water levels on the main stem don't allow these feeder rivers to empty.

A hydrograph (past/forecast river levels) of the Mississippi River at Memphis shows a rapid climb of nearly 10 feet over the past week (blue) and a forecast crest (purple dots) near 39' in the coming days. Currently, the river is not expected to drop back below flood stage until March 18. (NWS)

Overall, the week ahead doesn't look too bad, book-ended by rain chances and with a dip in temperatures mid-week. It looks a lot like an early spring forecast! Follow us all week on social media as we provide updates every day on Facebook and Twitter. Also be sure to download the MemphisWeather.net mobile app for the latest conditions, radar, and most recent update to the human-powered MWN Forecast. All links are below.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder