If it quacks like a duck... (heavy rain expected)

Seems spring has sprung the past couple of days as we've reach temperatures in the mid to upper 70s both Monday and Tuesday. Monday's high tied a record set just last year at 77°. Today's record of 80° (also set last year) may be safe, but not my much. [Side note: the 80° reading last year on this date was the first time we had reached 80° in February in 32 years. We almost did it again today!]

A cold front approaches

The warm, moist air that brings 70s to the region will be the same water-loaded air that is responsible for periods of heavy rain in the coming 4-5 days. It all starts with a cold front that is literally separating winter from spring in the U.S. While the western U.S. shivers, the eastern U.S. is setting dozens of warm weather records. Near the boundary, rain, thunderstorms, and ice are falling as the front slides slowly southeast. (OKC dropped from 68° to 32° and freezing precipitation in just 3 hours!)

Early afternoon temperatures across the CONUS show clearly where the cold front is located. (WxBell)

Wet Wednesday

By Wednesday early morning, that front will move through the metro and the wet pattern commences. Tomorrow will be very similar to last Friday when a high temperature in the mid 60s occurred around morning rush hour and the mercury fell from there in rainfall. We will see temperatures above 60° around dawn, then fall through the 50s into the upper 40s by Wednesday evening with rainfall much of the day.

Though severe weather will not occur, we will likely hear some thunder around the time the front passes early in the day. The heaviest rain will likely occur Wednesday night as the "river of atmospheric moisture" above us is tapped by a passing upper level disturbance, effectively opening the spigot just a little bit further. Rainfall totals through Thursday morning will likely be in the 2-3" range or so for the metro.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center forecasts approximately 2.5" of rain by Thursday morning. (WPC/WxBell)

A Moderate Risk (category 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall - enough to cause flooding - is forecast with our first round of precipitation Wednesday in to Wednesday night. Flash Flood Warnings are very possible as the event unfolds. (NOAA/WPC)

Thursday-Friday - a small reprieve?

Continued scattered showers are expected Thursday and Thursday night as the front lingers just to our south before pulling back to the north overnight as a warm front. Models have some disagreement on the rain chances Friday, with one camp showing rainfall remaining mainly to our northwest, while the European model is a little more aggressive with scattered storms on Friday. We'll call it TBD and tell you to be prepared for scattered precipitation! Temperatures will still warm up nicely into the lower 70s.

Saturday-Saturday Night - Wet Again

By Saturday and Saturday night though, we'll be moving into round 2 of heavy precipitation. As low pressure moves by to our north and that warm, moist airmass has re-established itself over the Mid-South, showers and thunderstorms will break out. A few storms have the capability of becoming strong with some hail or strong wind gusts possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. With heavy rain also expected though, it's possible that the air may not be unstable enough to generate severe storms. Stay tuned.

The severe weather outlook for Saturday is equivalent to a "Slight Risk" of severe storms, or category 2 of 5 risk. This could change as we draw closer in time though. Follow MWN for the latest. (SPC)

Either way, the Mid-South could easily pick up another couple of inches of rain before it moves out with a frontal passage late Saturday night, yielding a 5-day total of 3-6", or an amount only a duck could be happy about...

Flood Watches are in effect for the entire area (including Memphis and Shelby County) through early Sunday morning . If you live in, or travel through, areas subject to flooding during heavy rain events, that will likely have again this week. As as reminder: "turn around, don't drown." The only way to ensure your safety is to stay out of the water.

Sunday brings a return of dry weather that should last through early next week. Hopefully, some good drying will take place with mild conditions. By then, the all-time February rainfall record (11.14") could be broken however.

River flooding

We'll also be watching the river levels in the area. With the expansive reach and overall amount of water that will fall over the coming week, rivers will be high and could also flood some areas. The spring flood season is starting, including watching the Mississippi River rise as we head into early March. It will also likely eclipse the low end of flood stage and could have ramifications for low-lying areas, including along its tributaries (the Wolf, Loosahatchie, and Nonconnah rivers).

Stay with MWN for the latest on the heavy rain threat(s) via our social media feeds and mobile app with the human-powered MWN Forecast (links below). We'll keep you updated throughout!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Wet weather and roller coaster temps on the way!

It felt a bit like spring on this Valentine's Day with warm, muggy, and wet conditions. While that will be a trend that we'll get a lot of in the next week or more, there is one major front that will disrupt the pattern on Friday. Let's dig a bit into the details.

Thursday

After a night in which temperatures remain in the 60s and south wind increases, Thursday will be the warmest day of 2018 to this point with highs projected to be near 75°. Rain chances will be minimal but southwesterly wind gusts will reach 30 mph in the afternoon hours. Clouds dominate the skyscape.

Thursday night - Friday

With a cold front remaining to our north Thursday night, another very warm night is in store, though rain chances will increase a bit as we head into the early morning hours. Southwesterly wind keeps the mercury above 60° all night long. Friday is one of those "upside down" days - and not necessarily pleasant! A significant cold front arrives in the morning, maybe by 8am, and triggers temperatures to plummet, in addition to rain. Despite the potency of the front, thunderstorms are not forecast, as most precipitation will fall after the front passes. Rain totals of less than a a half-inch are expected. Temperatures will fall quickly into the upper 40s with the morning frontal passage, then continue to slowly fall throughout the day. By evening, we'll likely be in the upper 30s with a wind chill near freezing, after starting the day near 60°.

Forecast temperatures at 6am Friday as a potent cold front moves south through the Mid-South, dropping temperatures from the lower 60s overnight into the 40s during the day. (WxBell - 3km NAM model)

Saturday-Sunday

Despite the temperatures residing in the 30s Friday night, most precipitation will take a break. On Saturday though, rainfall returns on the cool side of the front with temperatures in the 40s throughout the day. Another chilly, wet day.

Overall, Sunday appears to be mainly dry, though clouds will linger and a few showers can't be ruled out. It will start to warm back up though as Friday's cold front returns as a warm front and helps lift temps back into the 50s.

Monday-Tuesday

The start of the work week returns us to a warm, but unsettled pattern. As high pressure builds off the Atlantic coast, the favored region for precipitation will be around its perimeter. Depending on the strength of the high, that "perimeter area" could be right over the Mid-South, meaning continued chances of showers, perhaps some thunderstorms, and an increasing concern for flooding in low-lying and urban areas, as well as along local streams, creeks and tributaries that feed the Mississippi River, as rainfall totals for the week approach 3"+. Some areas by mid-week next week could see week-long rain totals of 6" or more. This will be in addition to the 5" of rain we have already received this month, which is already above the average for the entire month! Quack.

Total precipitation forecast by the NWS through next Wednesday is 3-4" across the Mid-South. Some local areas could see more than that. (WxBell)

Looking further out, the pattern is trending towards a continuance of generally warm and wet conditions right through the end of the month. Could it be an early spring? Or will March bring a now-almost-expected cold blast or two? We'll have to wait and see!

NOAA predicts a high likelihood of above average temperatures for the last week of February.

NOAA predicts a good chance of above average precipitation for the last week of February as well.

Stay in touch with the forecast conditions, and a very busy radar, with the MemphisWeather.net app. We'll have the latest information via our always-current social media feeds. All links are below!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder