Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Wet weather and roller coaster temps on the way!

It felt a bit like spring on this Valentine's Day with warm, muggy, and wet conditions. While that will be a trend that we'll get a lot of in the next week or more, there is one major front that will disrupt the pattern on Friday. Let's dig a bit into the details.


After a night in which temperatures remain in the 60s and south wind increases, Thursday will be the warmest day of 2018 to this point with highs projected to be near 75°. Rain chances will be minimal but southwesterly wind gusts will reach 30 mph in the afternoon hours. Clouds dominate the skyscape.

Thursday night - Friday

With a cold front remaining to our north Thursday night, another very warm night is in store, though rain chances will increase a bit as we head into the early morning hours. Southwesterly wind keeps the mercury above 60° all night long. Friday is one of those "upside down" days - and not necessarily pleasant! A significant cold front arrives in the morning, maybe by 8am, and triggers temperatures to plummet, in addition to rain. Despite the potency of the front, thunderstorms are not forecast, as most precipitation will fall after the front passes. Rain totals of less than a a half-inch are expected. Temperatures will fall quickly into the upper 40s with the morning frontal passage, then continue to slowly fall throughout the day. By evening, we'll likely be in the upper 30s with a wind chill near freezing, after starting the day near 60°.

Forecast temperatures at 6am Friday as a potent cold front moves south through the Mid-South, dropping temperatures from the lower 60s overnight into the 40s during the day. (WxBell - 3km NAM model)


Despite the temperatures residing in the 30s Friday night, most precipitation will take a break. On Saturday though, rainfall returns on the cool side of the front with temperatures in the 40s throughout the day. Another chilly, wet day.

Overall, Sunday appears to be mainly dry, though clouds will linger and a few showers can't be ruled out. It will start to warm back up though as Friday's cold front returns as a warm front and helps lift temps back into the 50s.


The start of the work week returns us to a warm, but unsettled pattern. As high pressure builds off the Atlantic coast, the favored region for precipitation will be around its perimeter. Depending on the strength of the high, that "perimeter area" could be right over the Mid-South, meaning continued chances of showers, perhaps some thunderstorms, and an increasing concern for flooding in low-lying and urban areas, as well as along local streams, creeks and tributaries that feed the Mississippi River, as rainfall totals for the week approach 3"+. Some areas by mid-week next week could see week-long rain totals of 6" or more. This will be in addition to the 5" of rain we have already received this month, which is already above the average for the entire month! Quack.

Total precipitation forecast by the NWS through next Wednesday is 3-4" across the Mid-South. Some local areas could see more than that. (WxBell)

Looking further out, the pattern is trending towards a continuance of generally warm and wet conditions right through the end of the month. Could it be an early spring? Or will March bring a now-almost-expected cold blast or two? We'll have to wait and see!

NOAA predicts a high likelihood of above average temperatures for the last week of February.

NOAA predicts a good chance of above average precipitation for the last week of February as well.

Stay in touch with the forecast conditions, and a very busy radar, with the app. We'll have the latest information via our always-current social media feeds. All links are below!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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