Friday, July 28, 2023

Late summer heat builds, offset only by a few thunderstorm chances

After a stint of temperatures near or below average, we've turned a corner as we near the end of July with a stretch of highs in the mid to upper 90s is on its way to the Mid-South this weekend and next week. Grab your favorite frozen treat and let’s dive into the forecast!

Friday evening-Saturday

We’ll wrap up the work week hot and dry and continue that pattern to start the weekend. Saturday, highs will reach 97 under mostly sunny skies. Combined with humidity, heat index values will be near 105. A heat advisory will be continued into Saturday due to this potentially-dangerous heat.

Forecasted highs on Saturday will range in the mid to upper 90s. (NWS Memphis)


The clockwise flow around a high pressure aloft over the Four Corners region will usher in a northwest wind on Sunday. A disturbance along this flow will be funneled into our area to provide the chance for afternoon storms. Given how hot and humid it’ll be, these storms could be gullywashers and have the chance to be strong to severe. At this time, all of us are under a level 1/5 “marginal” risk for severe weather.

The ECMWF (European) model shows a ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners region Sunday afternoon. Since Memphis is on the east side of the high, clockwise rotation will bring us a northwest wind. (WeatherBell)

A Marginal Risk of severe weather is currently forecast for the metro on Sunday. (NOAA/SPC)

Monday - Tuesday

A "cold" front will pass late Sunday into early Monday. So, we lose the chance for rain to start the week, but otherwise, it’ll be a carbon copy of Sunday. Highs won’t take a noticeable dive behind this front and will return to the mid 90s again. Behind the cold front’s passage, northwest flow will be reestablished on Tuesday. With that comes the chance for storms once again. Highs will be in the mid 90s.

Wednesday - Friday

A chance of storms remains for Wednesday, but the ridge of high pressure will push east into the lower Mississippi Valley for the end of next week. When that happens, we’ll drop the chance for rain and be left with brutal heat! Highs for Thursday and Friday will jump into the upper 90s. Let’s all cross our fingers and hope we don’t reach the century mark! 

Owen Basselman
MWN Intern

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