Friday, November 5, 2021

October 2021 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

October Climate Recap

With October typically introducing the first cool air of the year, this month was a little less cool than might be expected. The first half of the month (15 days) were all above average temperature-wise with most days in the 80s for highs and 60s for lows. In fact, for the first 15 days of the month, the average temperature was seventh warmest on record. The pattern flipped on the 15th as a strong front moved through. After that front, only six days averaged above normal, with lows routinely in the 40s to low 50s. However, the month still ended 15th warmest in the 147-year record, weighted primarily by the low temperature averaging over 4 degrees above average.

A handful of wet days were spread out across the course of the month, including over an inch on the 2nd, nearly 2 inches on the 15th, and another 1.74" over the course of 5 days near the end of the month. For the month, precipitation totaled 0.80" above average. There was one marginally severe event during the month, a squall line that sparked a couple of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and a Tornado Warning for far northwest MS. A funnel cloud was spotted southwest of Hughes, AR in St. Francis, AR, otherwise there were no severe weather reports in the metro. 

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 67.9 degrees (3.3 degrees above average) 
Average high temperature: 77.5 degrees (2.4 degrees above average) 
Average low temperature: 58.3 degrees (4.3 degrees above average) 
Warmest temperature: 87 degrees (8th, 13th) 
Coolest temperature: 45 degrees (31st) 
Heating Degrees Days: 71 (45 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 166 (64 above average) 
Records set or tied: None
Comments: October's average temperature was 15th warmest on record (147 years).

Monthly total: 4.78" (0.8" above average) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 10 (2.5 days above average) 
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.80" (15th) 
Snowfall: 0.0"
Records set or tied: None
Comments: None

Peak wind: Northwest/40 mph (15th) 
Average wind: 7.4 mph 
Average relative humidity: 71% 
Average sky cover: 48% 

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 66.0 degrees 
Average high temperature: 77.5 degrees 
Average low temperature: 56.1 degrees 
Warmest temperature: 88.8 degrees (8th) 
Coolest temperature: 40.9 degrees (17th) 
Comments: None 

Monthly total: 3.03" (automated rain gauge), 3.37"(manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 8
Wettest date: 0.88" (15th) (via automated gauge) 
Snowfall: 0.0"
Comments: Total rainfall in Bartlett was nearly 1.5" less than at the airport.

Peak wind: South/27 mph (11th)
Average relative humidity: 81% 
Average barometric pressure: 29.94 in. Hg
Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.64 degrees 
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 79% 
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.50 degrees 
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 79% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook - November 2021

The November climate outlook for the United States from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Above average temperatures are forecast for the Great Lakes into New England, as well as much of the western U.S., particularly the Desert Southwest. Odds favor near average temperatures for Memphis over the course of the month. The average temperature for November is 52.7 degrees, twelve degrees below the October average.

Precipitation is expected to be above normal for the Great Lakes region and northeast, as well as the northwest U.S. and Great Basin. Below average precipitation is forecast for southern U.S. For Memphis, odds favor near average precipitation , which historically averages 4.69 inches in November.

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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

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