Sunday, September 12, 2021

Humidity & rain chances return as T.S. Nicholas moves towards southeast TX

Much to my chagrin, and probably most of yours, the cooler mornings and below average humidity of this past week is on its way out for the coming week. High pressure to our east brings a return of near-70° dewpoints on light southerly flow, as well as an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances for the coming week. Let's dive into the details.


With wind shifting to the south today, moisture is starting to increase again after a very pleasant week gone by. Dewpoints - which were in the 50s for much of the past week - will rise to the upper 60s to near 70 degrees to start the week. Ick. Moisture aloft also increases, and that means more scattered to broken cloud cover, especially during the daytime hours. While most of us stay dry, I expect to see a few echoes on radar by Monday afternoon as instability rises a bit. Tuesday will features a few more showers than Monday, but rain chances are still likely to only be 10-20% each day. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s Monday and mid 80s Tuesday with lows in the low 70s instead of the 50s and 60s of the past several days. You'll notice that as you step out in the mornings.


As a front moves south towards the region but stalls near the KY/TN border, atmospheric moisture increase continues into mid-week, mainly sourced to our south where brand-new Tropical Storm Nicholas (currently making its way towards the TX coast; see below) will likely be in the vicinity of eastern TX. Southerly wind will push clouds and increased rain chances into the area, though with the main focus of the storm well to our south, I don't expect rain-outs locally. We'll put POPs (probability of precipitation) in the "scattered" range, or 40-50%. Rainfall totals will be insufficient to completely overcome the recent dryness, likely less than an inch in any one spot.

Additional cloud cover will hold highs back to the mid 80s with morning lows near or just above 70° and dewpoints lingering around 70° as well. It'll feel fairly sticky and you'll want to keep the umbrella handy. Forecast confidence dips just a bit for this mid-week period, depending on the eventual track of Nicholas, though it's likely to remain well to our south.

Friday into next weekend

Remnants of Nicholas may dry up a bit to our south due to a lack of flow to push it somewhere else. Meanwhile, high pressure rebuilds a bit over our area, so the Mid-South will probably see diminishing rain chances into next weekend, though maybe not totally dry. High temperatures start to rise back to near 90 degrees with humidity sticking around without a frontal system to shove it away. Overall, for the last weekend of "official summer," you'll probably be ready for fall to arrive for good. We're not quite there yet! 

The temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for next weekend into the start of the following week paints a warm picture. There is a very high probability of above average temperatures for our area, during a time when average highs are in the mid 80s. 

If you are heading to the Mississippi State/Memphis football game on Saturday, it won't be hot chocolate or long sleeve weather yet - plan on a bit of sweat, even just as "engaged bystanders" in the stadium!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

No comments: