Friday, November 6, 2020

October 2020 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

October Climate Recap

October is a month that Memphis typically starts seeing cold fronts move through as summer months move into the rearview mirror. Temperature swings multiple times over this month indicate that happened, with repetitive warm spells followed by cool spells. Overall, the monthly average ended up a bit over a degree below normal with a large gap between the warmest temperature (85) and the coolest temperature (39). There were no frost or freeze days anywhere in the metro during the month despite upper 30s to end the month.

This month, a good deal of rain fell, resulting in about 3/4" of rain above normal. However, a great deal of that total (about 93%) fell on just 2 days - both due to tropical remnants. Between those two events, a run of 17 days produced only 0.04". The first rainy day occurred on the 10th as the remnants of former Hurricane Delta moved through north MS. The wettest day of the month was the 28th when 2.68" fell at the airport.  This was the result of former Hurricane Zeta moving into MS and AL, but it's moisture combining with a stalled front to drop 2-3" across the region. Both systems made landfall in Louisiana and curved northeast to the south of Memphis. The only weather alerts issued in the Memphis metro in October were a pair of Flood Advisories as rain became heavy on the 28th.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 62.8 degrees (1.3 degrees below average) 
Average high temperature: 72.3 degrees (2.1 degrees below average) 
Average low temperature: 53.3 degrees (0.5 degrees below average) 
Warmest temperature: 85 degrees (20th, 21st, 22nd) 
Coolest temperature: 39 degrees (30th) 
Heating Degrees Days: 132 (12 above average)
Cooling Degree Days: 72 (20 below average) 
Records set or tied: None 
Comments: None

Monthly total: 4.69" (0.71" above average) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 6 (1.5 days below average) 
Wettest 24-hour period: 2.68" (28th) 
Snowfall: None 
Records set or tied: Record daily rainfall - 2.68 " (28th)
Comments: Ninety-three percent of October's rainfall was due to the remnants of two tropical systems.

Peak wind: East/34 mph (10th) 
Average wind: 7.0 mph 
Average relative humidity: 70% 
Average sky cover: 50% 

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 60.3 degrees 
Average high temperature: 71.8 degrees 
Average low temperature: 50.6 degrees 
Warmest temperature: 85.3 degrees (21st) 
Coolest temperature: 37.8 degrees (31st) 
Comments: None 

Monthly total: 4.81" (automated rain gauge), 5.00"(manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 9
Wettest date: 2.31" (10th) (via automated gauge) 
Snowfall: None 
Comments: None 

Peak wind: Northeast/22 mph (10th)
Average relative humidity: 82% 
Average barometric pressure: 30.05 in. Hg
Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.21 degrees 
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 68% 
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.07 degrees 
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 70% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook - November 2020

The November climate outlook for the United States from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Above average temperatures are forecast for much of the United States, with highest probabilities in the Northeast U.S. and Southern Plains west through the Desert Southwest. Odds favor above average temperatures for Memphis (a 38% chance), where the average temperature for November is 53.2 degrees.

Precipitation is expected to be below normal across much of the southern U.S. in November, particularly in the Southern Plains with slightly above average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest. For Memphis, odds favor below average rainfall (a 46% chance) versus only an 21% chance of above average rainfall. Precipitation historically averages 5.49 inches in November. 

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