Saturday, October 10, 2020

September 2020 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

September Climate Recap

September was a tale of two seasons as far as temperatures were concerned - summer for the first half of the month and fall for the last couple of weeks. From the 1st through the 17th, high temperatures averaged 88 degrees with only four morning lows in the 60s and only one daily average temperature below normal. From the 18th on, high temperatures averaged 76 degrees, morning lows routinely dropped into the 50s, and only one daily average temperature was above normal. Because cool anomalies to end the month were warmer than the warm anomalies to start it, the monthly average temperature ended up just under a degree below normal.

September is typically the second driest month of the year behind August, and September 2020 kept that statistic trending the right direction with just over 1.5" of rain at Memphis International Airport and under 3" in Bartlett. A large pat of that differential occurred on the 12th when Bartlett recorded over an inch of rain and the airport was under 0.10". There were seven days with measurable rain for the month, right at average.

September is not typically a severe weather month and 2020 held serve. There was one severe weather event - scattered strong thunderstorms on the evening of the 2nd. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were issued for the metro and a Tornado Warning was issued for Crittenden County. Trees were downed in DeSoto County. Flash Flood Warnings were also issued for the eastern MWN coverage area on the 12th.

MWN StormView Radar on September 2 as a rotating cell moved through Crittenden County, AR.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 74.5 degrees (0.7 degrees below average) 
Average high temperature: 82.6 degrees (2.5 degrees below average) 
Average low temperature: 66.4 degrees (1.2 degrees above average) 
Warmest temperature: 92 degrees (11th) 
Coolest temperature: 52 degrees (29th) 
Heating Degrees Days: 7 (4 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 302 (14 below average) 
Records set or tied: None 
Comments: None

Monthly total: 1.58" (1.51" below average) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 7 (0.3 days below average) 
Wettest 24-hour period: 0.62" (23rd) 
Snowfall: None 
Records set or tied: None 
Comments: None

Peak wind: East/32 mph (19th) 
Average wind: 7.6 mph 
Average relative humidity: 71% 
Average sky cover: 50% 

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 71.9 degrees 
Average high temperature: 81.8 degrees 
Average low temperature: 63.8 degrees 
Warmest temperature: 93.2 degrees (7th) 
Coolest temperature: 49.6 degrees (29th) 
Comments: None 

Monthly total: 2.88" (automated rain gauge), 2.68"(manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 7
Wettest date: 1.11" (12th) (via automated gauge) 
Snowfall: None 
Comments: None 

Peak wind: Northeast/20 mph (19th)
Average relative humidity: 83% 
Average barometric pressure: 30.00 in. Hg
Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.19 degrees 
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 62% 
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.73 degrees 
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 74% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook - October 2020

The October climate outlook for the United States from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Above average temperatures are forecast for much of the United States, with highest probabilities in the Northeast and Southwest U.S. Odds favor above average temperatures for Memphis, where the average temperature for October is 64.1 degrees.

Precipitation is expected to be below normal in the central U.S., particularly in the Southern Plains with a signal for anomalously wet conditions in portions of the Pacific Northwest and Florida peninsula. For Memphis, odds favor below average rainfall (a 49% chance) versus only an 18% chance of above average rainfall. Precipitation historically averages only 3.98 inches in October. 

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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

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