Thursday, September 3, 2020

Welcome to Meteorological Fall! A beautiful Labor Day weekend is just ahead!


We've been feeling a bit like we have been stuck on repeat with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and muggy conditions, even as we entered "meteorological fall," the September-November period used to compute autumn climate averages. That stays true through early tomorrow but thankfully a dry weak cold front will push through, dropping our dew points! That will lead us right into the holiday weekend with abundant sunshine and comfortable humidity. Thankfully Labor Day looks pleasant with minimal rain chances but as we head into mid week next week, rain and storms return. The best part of the rain returning is the fact that it is associated our first fall-like cold front! This will drop our temperatures below average as well as our humidity! 

Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 Temperature Outlook showing below average temperatures for much of the U.S. [Valid Sept. 9-13] (NOAA/CPC)


We're sitting fairly comfortable this afternoon across the 901! A weak cold front will move through the region Friday morning. This will keep tonight's lows on the warmer side of things in the mid 70s. A few showers will accompany the frontal passage but overall this is a relatively dry front. The front brings a bit of good news to the region too! Friday we will start with a few showers and clouds but throughout the day, skies will clear leaving us with a very pleasant afternoon. While our temperatures won't be drastically lower, with highs still in the low to mid 80s, the humidity will drop all afternoon, thus keeping our heat indices to a minimum!

NAM 3k model showing future reflectivity. Scattered showers are possible in the early overnight. [Valid Thursday 3pm - Friday 3am] (PivotalWeather)

Saturday - Sunday 

As we head into Friday night, all stray showers will be well out of our area leaving us mild and dry! Thankfully we have more of the same throughout the weekend and into early next week! We start off Saturday morning very pleasant and mild with temperatures in the 60s! Saturday will be a great day for any outdoor work that you may need to get done as we'll have abundant sunshine, highs in the upper 80s, and comfortable humidity levels. Soak it in as much as you can, as we don't get to say that a lot here in the Southeast! We have more of the same as we head into Sunday, but temperatures will start to recover a bit. Sunday afternoon will continue with plenty of sunshine but highs will be back near 90. 

Labor Day

If you have Labor Day plans, you are in luck! Our pleasant weekend will bleed over into the holiday! While humidity levels will be slightly higher, they will still be comfortable! The sun will also stick around throughout the afternoon keeping our rain chances near zero. Overall it's shaping up to be a great day for any (socially distant) Labor Day celebrations! As we head into late Monday night, rain chances begin to uptick. Thankfully most of the showers will not reach our neck of the woods until early Tuesday morning. 

Tuesday - Thursday  

Our wet pattern returns Tuesday with scattered showers and partly cloudy skies throughout the afternoon. Thankfully along with these showers comes a bit of exciting news, a cold front! throughout Tuesday and Wednesday, winds will be southerly allowing for warm moist air to move into the region. As the trough digs through the central portion of the US toward the Southeast, showers and storms will spawn across our region. We will likely see off and on rain starting Tuesday morning through Thursday morning, however, it does appear we will get a few breaks during the day. Wednesday looks to be the wettest as the frontal passage will likely occur Wednesday night and into early Thursday. This means that though Wednesday may be a bit of a wash, by Thursday afternoon, drier and cooler air will be here! 
GFS model loop showing future showers and storms ahead of a cold front that will pass early Thursday morning. [Valid Monday at midnight - Thursday at midnight] (PivotalWeather)

Temperature-wise, Tuesday will continue the warm pattern we have seen with temperatures near 90 and high humidity. Into Wednesday, clouds and rain chances will keep our highs in the upper 80s, however, Thursday's high may struggle to hit 80, well below average for this time of year! So for all of those waiting for a reason to be excited for fall, here it is! 

Saying Farewell! 

Like most I hate to say goodbye, but it has come time for me to move on in my career. I have so loved getting to be a part of this wonderful team. Erik has taught me so much and I genuinely wish him, along with the rest of his team, the very best. I will take things I learned from my experiences here with me throughout my career. So thank you to each and every one of one. I can't wait to see what's next! 

Allison Paige 
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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