Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Cold front brings some relief tomorrow, but the summertime pattern is not far off!

Tuesday night into Wednesday 

While we have had a rather active afternoon across western Tennessee today, things have finally started to calm down. The remainder of the light rain has left the metro area and the skies are starting the clear up as we continue into Tuesday night as the cold front finally moves through. This will also shift our winds from southerly to more west-northwesterly but Wednesday morning and drop our overnight low into the upper 60s. Thankfully drier air will also usher in behind the cold front allowing for a very pleasant late June Hump Day with partly sunny skies and afternoon highs only in the mid 80s!  

Thursday through Saturday

These pleasant conditions stick around for most of Thursday with morning temperatures starting off near 70 under a mostly sunny sky, but by the afternoon a warm front will approach the area from the south. This will bring highs in the upper 80s and humid conditions with pop up showers. Much of the same continues into Friday the warm front moves further north and high pressure situates over eastern Tennessee. This will lessen our chances for widespread rainfall but scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible for much of Friday and into Saturday. This will set us up for a much more seasonable pattern with overnight lows in the lower 70s and afternoon highs near 90 returning Friday and Saturday. 

Loop showing forecasted precipitation rates across the southeast for Thursday through Saturday at midnight from the European Model (EURO). This loop shows moisture moving through the region before a high pressure situates over eastern Tennessee on Friday.  (PivotalWeather.com)

Sunday through Tuesday

Sunday morning will start off with temperatures in the low 70s but afternoon highs will quickly warm into the low 90s. Higher humidity levels will return and lead to the possibility for scattered pop up thunderstorms or showers. Monday will bring much of the same with pop up thunderstorms and afternoon highs in the low 90s. Notice a pattern? 

Thanks to a typical summer time ridge, our weather will be stuck on repeat through mid-week. We will have mild mornings but hot and humid afternoons with scattered showers and thunderstorms especially after 2:00pm. Thankfully this pattern will limit widespread rain activity and severe storms but an isolated strong thunderstorm is never out of the question on a humid summer afternoon! 

Loop showing forecasted precipitation rates across the southeast for Sunday through Tuesday at midnight from the European Model (EURO). This loop highlights that we will see very little widespread rain over western Tennessee early next week with limited local pop up showers possible. (PivotalWeather.com)

An early look at the first week of July

While a typical summer pattern is likely through mid-week next week to end June, the Climate Prediction Center suggests that an slight shift is in store for the first week of July. Thankfully this pattern shift will not include a heat wave but is more indicative of near average temperatures continuing. It also suggests that July will start off rather soggy with an above average precipitation pattern through the 7th. Hopefully we can squeeze out a drier day on next Saturday for Independence Day! 

Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 Day Precipitation Probability highlighting that the southeast will likely see an above average pattern through the first week of July. (PivotalWeather.com)

Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 Day Temperature Probability highlighting that the southeast will likely see near to slightly above average temperatures through the first week of July. (PivotalWeather.com)

Allison Paige
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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