Friday, May 15, 2020

Rain chances and early summer humidity return, but for how long?

Over the last week we saw below normal temperatures. We also saw mainly sunshine, but Tuesday was a pretty chilly and dreary day. Over the next week we will see shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend, but then reduce after Sunday with a passing cold front. Monday through Friday looks great with relatively mild temperatures and little chance of rain.

Tonight, Saturday and Sunday

After we top out in the lower 80s with scattered showers and thunderstorms today, the overnight hours will see a decrease in shower and thunderstorm potential. Overnight temperatures will only drop to the upper 60s, with an abundance of clouds, and a very small chance of an isolated shower.

Saturday will be similar to what we saw today because there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms with temperatures topping out in the mid 80s. Saturday night and heading into Sunday will be similar to Friday night, as temperatures will probably drop to the upper 60s, with a chance of showers. Muggy conditions will also make it feel quite a bit more uncomfortable than we have been used to lately.

Sunday we are expecting to see an approaching cold front. This means we will be in the warm sector of the low pressure system leading to temperatures around 80. This cold front will ultimately bring showers and thunderstorms After it passes it will bring cooler temperatures and a less humid "feel". Sunday night temperatures will drop to the lower 60s with the passing of the cold front.

This is a map of the expected surface analysis for early Sunday morning. A low pressure system bringing a cold front will most likely be approaching our area (via Weather predictions Center [WPC]). 

Monday and Tuesday

After the cold front passes on Sunday night, it will bring a nice and pleasant Monday. We are expecting a decrease in clouds towards more sun, low humidity, and temperatures in the lower 70s. Heading into Tuesday, overnight temperatures will drop to the mid 50s making for a rather chilly night for this time of year.

On Tuesday we will be in store for another pleasant and mild day with partly cloudy skies, with temperatures again topping out in the lower 70s. Heading into Wednesday during the overnight hours we will again drop to the mid 50s making for a rather chilly night.

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday 

Wednesday we will have a little cloud cover, making for a mostly sunny day. Temperatures on Wednesday will also top out in the mid 70s for another mild and pleasant day. Heading into Thursday morning temps will be closer to normal as they will drop to around 60. Thursday will top out near 80 under partly cloudy skies.  Thursday night into Friday temperatures will drop into the lower 60s. Friday will be a little warmer as we are expected to top out in the lower 80s under mostly sunny skies.

The reason we will see rather mild and pleasant conditions next week, is because after the cold front passes Sunday, a high pressure system will move over the area bringing plenty of sunshine and low rain chances. A high pressure system almost always brings benign weather conditions.

Week Two

Looking at the predictions put out by the Climate Predictions Center (CPC), temperatures could return to above normal with slightly below normal precipitation from May 22nd to May 28th.

The CPC has a 40-60% of above normal temperatures from May 22nd to May 28th. 

The CPC has a 30-40% of below normal precipitation from May 22nd to May 28th.

Max Magness
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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