Friday, February 28, 2020

A beautiful weekend before more rain and storms early next week.

A beautiful weekend in store! Plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures Friday, Saturday, and Sunday before our next weather maker moves in. A cold front will begin moving through the Southeast on Monday spurring our next significant rain chance. Storms and rain continue through Wednesday with a few stronger storms possible. Thankfully we will return to sunny and pleasant conditions by next Thursday and Friday but temperatures will be cooler.

This loop shows the daily precipitation pattern for the next week. Periods of heavy rain are possible Monday night - Wednesday. (NOAA/WPC) 

Friday - Sunday

A mostly sunny day is in store for your Friday. Afternoon highs will be in the lower 50s but a 5-10 mph westerly breeze may make it feel a bit cooler. A few showers are possible this evening as as fairly energetic upper level wave moves through. In fact, a rumble of thunder is also possible, though not likely. Clouds will begin moving out of the metro area overnight and into tomorrow morning. Another chilly start on Saturday with morning lows in the mid-30s, but thankfully clouds will move out by late morning allowing for a very beautiful sunny day. Winds will become southerly and begin bringing up warmer air from the Gulf allowing for highs to be back near average, in the upper 50s. Overnight, lows will fall into the mid-40s as clouds begin to move in. This will make for a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day on Sunday. A gusty 15-30 mph southerly breeze will continue to bring in warmth and moisture allowing for Sunday's high to be in the mid-60s. A few scattered showers will be possible late afternoon with rain becoming likely overnight.

Temperature and wind barbs for 6pm Saturday. Southerly winds will help bring in warmer air and moisture ahead of our next cold front. (PivotalWeather)

Monday - Wednesday

Sadly, March comes in like a lion with another round of showers and storms starting on Monday and continuing for a good 48 hours. After it is all said and done on Wednesday, an additional 3-5 inches of rain are possible across western Tennessee. A mild start Monday with morning lows only in the mid 50s. Clouds will build with shower activity increasing throughout the day. A few thunderstorms are possible late Monday evening as a strong southerly breeze continues bringing in warmth and moisture aiding our instability as a front stalls to our north. Afternoon highs will feel very spring like in the upper 60s. Overnight, rain will continue but lows will only fall near 60.

Our greatest chance of a few stronger storms will be on Tuesday into Tuesday night. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an outlook concerning our area for those days; however, most of the severe activity should be to our south. Make sure to plan extra time on your commute Tuesday as heavy downpours and a few thunderstorms are expected throughout the day. With a lot of rainfall over the last month, this round could produce some flash flooding and river flooding on Tuesday. We'll keep a close eye on it!

Storm Prediction Center outlook issued on February 28 indicates a 15% (Slight Risk) probability of severe weather on Tuesday and Tuesday night. (NOAA/SPC)
Overnight temperatures Tuesday night will fall near 50 as the cold front moves east, but showers will continue into Wednesday morning. Scattered showers across most of the metro area throughout the day but much of the shower activity will taper off after late Wednesday morning. Overnight,cooler air begins moving back in pushing clouds out and lows back in the mid-40s.

Rainfall totals through next Friday from the GFS model midnight run on 2/28. The higher totals will be just to our north but we may see totals between 3-5 inches. The axis of heaviest rain may shift a bit, but be prepared for a 3-day period of moderate to heavy rain. (PivotalWeather)

Thursday and Friday

A gorgeous end to the work week is exactly what we need after such a dreary start. Sunshine will return on Thursday but cooler air will be in place behind the cold front. Afternoon highs will be near 60 but a light northerly breeze will make it feel a bit on the chilly side. We stay dry overnight and into Friday with lows near 40. Friday will be a very pleasant day with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 50s. So grab a jacket, get out, and enjoy the sun!

Allison Paige
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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