Monday, January 27, 2020

Near average January weather ahead, with a bit of a drying trend?

Here is some welcome news on a Monday in late January:

(View tweet here if it's not visible above.)

The month has been wet so far, continuing a trend from, well, the last 2 years... Total rainfall has topped six inches for the month with barely more than a couple of dry days between each new bout of rain. We've got one more of those systems to deal with early this week, then it appears we may get a chance to dry out for a minute. (Though that doesn't necessarily mean days of sunshine and rainbows... it is January after all!)

Today and Tuesday

Weak high pressure ridging into the area is bringing us one of the warmer days we've had lately as sunshine this afternoon allows temperatures to climb into the the upper 50s. Should be a nice evening for a walk as long as you grab a jacket! The next low pressure system moving along the southern U.S. atmospheric railroad track arrives Tuesday night, and it'll be moving slowly. Tuesday will be back to mostly cloudy, though most of the daylight hours should be dry with highs again in the mid 50s.

Another rain-maker

Light rain arrives around the time of the homeward-bound rush hour. Look for highs in the mid 50s. Steadier (though light) rain continues Tuesday night as the mercury drops to near 40. Or, "not quite cold enough," and another opportunity wasted, according to snow-lovers. Lingering light rain or drizzle continues Wednesday on the back side of the departing system. It'll be a chilly, wet day as wind shifts to the north and temperatures remain in the 40s. Warm rain coats and waterproof gloves might be in order.

The high-res NAM3 model shows the next rain-maker moving through the Mid-South Tuesday night and Wednesday (loop from 6am Tuesday to 6pm Wednesday). Precipitation should not be heavy, but it stays just warm enough near the TN/MS line to keep the wintry precipitation to our north. (Graphic: WeatherBell)

The European model ensemble (basically, 51 slightly different runs of the Euro model) gives the Memphis area an average of about 0.20" of rain through Wednesday. No downpours, deluges, or washouts expected! (WeatherBell)

Week's end into the weekend

Thursday remains cool (mid 30s for lows to mid 40s for highs) with some high clouds still streaming overhead, but we start a new dry streak that day. How long does it last? Models are not unified in their "dryness index" as we head into the weekend, so updates to this forecast are possible, but it appears that we could have very low, maybe no, rain chances right into early next week as temperatures begin to warm a bit. By Sunday and Monday, I expect we'll see numbers closer to 60 than 50 for highs as we roll into February and Groundhog's Day!

Recapping, and a longer look ahead

So to recap - a nice afternoon today, cooling trend with more wetness Tuesday night into Wednesday, then warming slowly back up with meh rain chances Friday/Saturday. No thunder, or snow. The 8-14 day outlook for next week calls for slightly below average temperatures and near average precipitation. NOAA's outlook for the month of February leans a bit cooler than average though. Winter is not over yet!

The Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for next week indicates slightly below average temperatures.  (Graphic: Pivotal Weather)

The Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook for next week indicates near average rainfall.  (Graphic: Pivotal Weather)

The Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Breviary shows areas from Memphis north in a cooler than average pattern. (Graphic: Pivotal Weather)

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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