Sunday, August 4, 2019

July 2019 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

July Climate Recap

While June featured below average temperatures nearly all month, July ended a bit below normal for the month, driven mainly by cooler than average temperatures in the latter half of the month. The first half of July was slightly above normal temperature-wise, but with a maximum for the month of 95 degrees, it didn't get exceptionally hot. The humidity from routine rainfall though made for very hot heat indices. The second half of the month had some above average days, but was well below normal (and much less humid) for about the last 10 days, resulting in slightly cooler than normal temperatures for the month. A low temperature record was tied on the 25th as much of the Mid-South outside the urban heat island fell into the 50s.

Following the fifth wettest June on record, July broke into the top ten wettest as well, almost 3 inches more than average at the airport. As in June though, the southeastern portion of the area was wetter than the northern part of Shelby County with 2 inches more rain at the airport than at MWN in Bartlett, resulting in a difference for the two months combined of about 8 inches between the two sites! The two-month total at the airport was just over 17 inches of rain, good for third wettest June-July on record. A daily rainfall record of 2.28 inches was set on the 16th as remnants of Hurricane Barry moved through the northern Mid-South.

Observed precipitation for July in the Memphis area. (NOAA/WPC)

Departure from average precipitation for July, expressed as percent of normal. (NOAA/WPC)

The main weather hazards in the metro during July were related to heavy rain with multiple Flash Flooding Warnings posted on the 14th and, especially, the 16th, when record rainfall occurred at Memphis International as the remnants of Hurricane Barry moved by to the north. Also on the 16th, a very large tree fell at Memphis Botanical Gardens. A single Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued on the evening of the 15th for northern Shelby and Tipton Counties. Finally, a brief EF-0 tornado touched down on the 16th in Victoria, MS (Marshall County), causing some roof and tree damage.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 81.5 degrees (1.2 degrees below average)
Average high temperature: 89.7 degrees (1.9 degrees below average)
Average low temperature: 73.4 degrees (0.4 degrees below average)
Warmest temperature: 95 degrees (8th)
Coolest temperature: 62 degrees (25th)
Heating Degrees Days: 0
Cooling Degree Days: 523 (26 below average)
Records set or tied: Record low tied (62 degrees on the 25th).
Comments: Twenty-two days recorded a high temperature of 90 degrees or warmer, 1.1 days more than the average for July.

Monthly total: 7.53" (2.94" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 10 (3.8 days above average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 2.28" (16th)
Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: Record daily rainfall set (2.28" on the 16th). Tenth wettest July on record. Third wettest June-July period on record.
Comments: The month ranked as the tenth wettest July on record. Five days recorded more than 0.5" of rain and three days recorded over 1.0" of rain.

Peak wind: West/45 mph (29th)
Average wind: 7.1 mph
Average relative humidity: 76%
Average sky cover: 50%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 80.2 degrees
Average high temperature: 90.6  degrees
Average low temperature: 71.3 degrees
Warmest temperature: 96.3 degrees (9th)
Coolest temperature: 56.6 degrees (25th)
Comments: None

Monthly total: 4.86" (automated rain gauge), 5.39" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 9
Wettest date: 2.11" (16th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Peak wind: South/28 mph (15th)
Average relative humidity: 81%
Average barometric pressure: 30.00 in. Hg

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.43 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 86%
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.69 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 75%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook - August

The August climate outlook for the United State from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Below average temperatures are expected across the Great Plains stretching east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, though with lower confidence. Above normal temperatures are likely to be found in the Pacific Northwest and in the far southern U.S., extending up the east coast. Odds favor near average temperatures for Memphis in August. Memphis averages 82.0 degrees for the month, just under a degree cooler than July, and is typically the second warmest month of the year.

A wet July is forecast for the Central Plains west into the Rocky Mountains, as well as south Florida. Below average precipitation is expected in the Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes, as well as in south-central TX. For Memphis, odds favor near average rainfall, which historically averages just 2.88" in August, which is climatologically the driest month of the year.

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