Saturday, April 20, 2019

Easter Weekend forecast and next week's rain chances

Happy Easter Weekend Everyone!

We have a beautiful couple of days in store for us, that everyone can enjoy. An upper level low that brought us our past few rainy days has shifted east, and is currently resting over eastern Kentucky. As it continues to stall over towards the Appalachians, a high pressure system will make its way into the Mid-South, bringing us some much needed sunshine and trending towards some warmer temps. Bye bye rainy weather! (For the time being...)


The overnight run of the NAM model shows temperatures every 3 hours through the weekend. Warmth returns after a chilly and wet day on Friday! (Pivotal Weather)
A great day to get out and about, temperatures are going to be around 15 degrees warmer than yesterday! Highs in the mid-to-upper 60's, with some gusty NW winds. Clear skies this evening will be the cause for a good decrease in our lows. Expect us to drop down to near 50, with a light wind.


Looks like the Easter bunny might be taking a relaxed trip down the bunny trail this Sunday. The kiddos might even want to take a peak outside, with weather this good it shouldn't be passed up. Temperatures are expected to get into the upper 70's thanks in part to the sunny skies and the southerly winds. Sunday night won't be as chilly with lows in the upper 50's, but still mainly clear skies.

The First Half of the Work Week

That high pressure system is going to stick around into the beginning of our work week, and continue to bring us sunny skies and high temperatures near 80 degrees. Our weather is working to give you that Monday motivation with a forecast like that! Tuesday has a few clouds returning, but they won't hide the sun that much.

Wednesday to Friday

This is where things get a bit tricky. Models have been in a bit of a disagreement towards the timing of a low pressure system making it's way through the Mid-South in the middle of the week, but are starting to line up this morning.

The GFS model shows the slow progressions of a rainy system from northwest to southeast across the Mid-South mid to late week. (Pivotal Weather)

The GFS model (above) fairly closely matches the European model (below) with the highest rain chances on Thursday, which could be a wet day. There are slight chances Wednesday evening and the rain might linger into early Friday. Severe weather chances currently appear to be low, but we'll be monitoring that as we get closer to the event!

The European model shows the low pressure system moving in a little later, and lingering a little longer than the GFS. (WeatherBell)

A Longer Outlook

The European model predicts above average temperatures for the next 10 days once we get past today. The coolest day next week would be Thursday when rain is forecast. (WeatherBell)
Into next weekend we are going to see some very nice temperatures, typical for the month of April. Some days are a bit above average, making for some nice outdoor time. Mostly dry conditions for next weekend, with highs almost near 80 degrees.

Have a great weekend, Memphians!

Jennifer Lambers
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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