Sunday, December 16, 2018

November 2018 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

November Climate Recap

The month of November was well below normal in the temperature department with persistent cool air for nearly the entire month. All but seven days were below average with two of those occurring on the last two days of November as a warm spell bridged the flipping of the calendar to December. The coldest temperatures occurred mid-month with a week-long string of temperatures more than 10 degrees below average. During that period, a record cold maximum temperature was observed with a high of only 30 degrees on the 14th. Seven days never reached 50 degrees.

Precipitation also ended below average, about one-fourth of normal, despite having measurable rain on nearly half of the days of the month. There were many days with less than 0.10" and only 2 days with more than an inch. There was no severe weather in the metro in November, though thunderstorms rumbled through on the evening of the 5th as highs reached 70 degrees. The only severe weather warnings issued by the National Weather Service for the month were a few Tornado Warnings that evening south of the greater Memphis area, with storms knocking down some trees in southern Marshall County, MS.

Another interesting event was the first winter weather event of the 2018-2019 season on November 14, as a potent upper level low moved over the Mid-South. Snowfall was generally under an inch in the metro, but the 0.6" recorded at the airport ranked 6th for most snowfall on a November day in history and the most in November in nearly 30 years.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 47.9 degrees (5.3 degrees below average)
Average high temperature: 56.4 degrees (6.2 degrees below average)
Average low temperature: 39.3 degrees (4.4 degrees below average)
Warmest temperature: 71 degrees (6th)
Coolest temperature: 25 degrees (27th)
Heating Degrees Days: 508 (140 above average)
Cooling Degree Days: 1 (12 below average)
Records set or tied: Record cool maximum - 30 degrees on the 14th. Record warm minimum - 64 degrees on the 30th.
Comments: The average temperature for the month ranked in the top 10% coolest on record.

Monthly total: 4.25" (1.24" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 14 (4.5 days above average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.19" (5th)
Snowfall: 0.6" (0.6" above average)
Records set or tied: Record snowfall occurred on 14th (0.6").
Comments: Three days recorded more than 0.5" of rain, two of which were over 1".

Peak wind: Northwest/43 mph (25th)
Average wind: 7.9 mph
Average relative humidity: 75%
Average sky cover: 60%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 46.5 degrees
Average high temperature: 57.6 degrees
Average low temperature: 37.1 degrees
Warmest temperature: 71.4 degrees (6th)
Coolest temperature: 22.5 degrees (28th)
Comments: Data was unavailable for November 13.

Monthly total: 4.91" (automated rain gauge), 4.90" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 11
Wettest date: 1.36" (5th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: 0.3" (14th)
Comments: None

Peak wind: Northwest/23 mph (25th)
Average relative humidity: 81%
Average barometric pressure: 30.11 in. Hg

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.64 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 58%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.07 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 67%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook - December

The December climate outlook for the United State from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal for much of the nation except the Rocky Mountains and inter-mountain west. For Memphis, odds of above normal temperatures in December are 39%, near normal 33% and below normal 28%. Memphis typically averages just over 43.6° degrees for the month of December.

A wet December is forecast for much of the United States except the northern tier of states. For Memphis, odds of above normal precipitation in December are 44%, near normal 33% and below normal 23%. December is historically the wettest month of the year in Memphis, averaging about 5.75" of precipitation. This month could be exceptionally so.

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