Friday, August 10, 2018

Warmer weather returns; low rain chances persist

Rain output from the recent stalled front under-performed the past few days. Don't worry rain wanters; we have more shots at showers and storms over the next several days, after today.

Today and Tonight

With that stalled front moving out of here, our skies will be clearing out today. With the return of sunshine, temps will be back on the rise, topping off around 90. As we move into the afternoon, some leftover energy from the exiting front, combined with today's heat, could produce a few isolated storms that last into the early evening; however, most will be remaining dry. Tonight, any storms that could develop will end early on and skies finish clearing out. Despite the clear skies, temps tonight only drop to 72. Sorry, no 60s.

Saturday and Saturday Night

If you're wanting to pull off some outdoor activities this weekend absolutely rain free, Saturday morning is going to be your best bet. Clouds gradually trickle in throughout the day and a very weak front starts to dive southeast. Unfortunately, clouds won't move in fast enough to prevent heating, bringing highs to the mid 90s for the afternoon. The inbound front will bring the chance of a few storms mid-late Saturday afternoon. These could last into the evening, and possibly into the early night if enough instability hangs around after sunset. After any remaining isolated storms move out, skies turn clear and temps drop to a low around 74.

NAM 12km model at 7pm Saturday shows a few storms moving through the Mid-South along a weak front. Source-Tropical Tidbits.

Sunday and Sunday Night

That weak front that dives south later Saturday will stall out near Memphis, bringing a source to help give some lift for Sunday afternoon storms. So, Sunday will start dry and mostly sunny. As we head into the afternoon, sky conditions turn partly cloudy and we will watch for scattered storms to develop. Obviously by this point in the forecast, summer has returned with yet another day with temps in the 90s.
Summer heat makes it's return by the weekend and looks to mainly stick around for the next several days

Sunday night, a few storms could be hanging around early on. They will gradually weaken after sunset, bringing back mostly clear skies for the remainder of the night. Temps Sunday night drop to the lower 70s.

Monday and Tuesday

Monday, the weak, stalled front remains over Memphis, providing enough lift for another dose of isolated storms in the afternoon. Temps will again top off around 90, with partly cloudy skies trying their best to hold off the heat. Monday night, rain chances linger on early, before ending and skies turn mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.

Tuesday, high pressure ridging temporarily takes over, breaking down that weak, stalled front. Skies will be partly cloudy, with obviously some sun coming in. There is the chance for an isolated shower or storm in the afternoon; however, anything that develops will be purely instability driven thanks to temps warming into the low 90s. Tuesday night, skies will be mostly clear and temps drop to the mid 70s.

Wednesday through Friday

Wednesday through Friday all look to be similar temperature-wise at the moment with highs topping off in the 90s and nighttime lows in the mid 70s. Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday rain-chance-wise with just another shot at just an isolated shower or storm possible. Thursday and Friday, another front dives south and stalls out across the Mid-South, bringing a new shot at increased rain chances. As a disclaimer, rain chances do increase, but they will remain scattered, so its likely that not everyone will see rain both days and it will not last all day.

Reggie Roakes
MWN Meteorologist

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