Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Unbearable summer heat looks to remain at bay

It has felt pretty decent outside recently for mid-July if you ask me. What's been causing all of this nice weather? Well a couple of things. One of the key factors for us lately is we haven't been stuck under a ridge pattern. When we get into these patterns, it keeps out any fronts that would help out our temperatures. This leads to extremely hot temperatures, increases those pesky pop-up afternoon shower chances, and makes dewpoints sore through the roof.

Thankfully, in recent times an upper-level trough has in control for the most part over our area. This allows temps to stay fairly mild for mid-July, holds dewpoints in the 60s, and keeps those afternoon thunderstorms away. Looking at the next few days Mother Nature will try to bring those sticky dewpoints back into the picture, but another cold front will pass through on Friday, which will help to cool things off again.

A little sticky and gross tomorrow

Tomorrow is likely going to be the most summer-like day that we will see this entire week. Highs will reach around 93 by the afternoon with heat index values creeping near the 100 degree mark. Winds will remain out of the northwest, which will keep dewpoints at bay and in the upper 60s.

While it will probably feel a bit more sticky tomorrow, there will not be enough moisture for afternoon pop-up thunderstorms to be a concern. So, lucky for us, we should dodge showers for yet another day.

Cold front Friday sets the stage for a fantastic weekend

Beginning tomorrow night, cloud coverage and our rain chances will begin to increase ahead of Friday's cold front. As the front moves close to the Mid-South, this may provide enough forcing to get some showers and maybe even a thunderstorm or two to develop.

Timing of these showers appears to be between late Thursday night through Friday morning. Different models have different variations on timing of these showers, but since they appear to be moving when temperatures are naturally at their coolest, there are no severe weather concerns.

The NAM model shows a line of showers passing through sometime during the overnight hours on Thursday night and showers moving out of our area rather quickly on Friday. (Tropical Tidbits)
Since these showers do appear to move through in the AM hours, afternoon and evening plans appear to be in the clear, but we'll be closely monitoring that. Additionally, cloud coverage through the day on Friday will keep high temperatures in the mid 80s. That's right, mid 80s. 

Saturday looks fantastic. If you have weekend plans, definitely make sure they include Saturday. Highs near 90, dewpoints in the mid 60s, basically no rain chances - sounds great to me!

Sunday looks to be very similar to Saturday in terms of temperatures; however, some rain chances may try to creep in the afternoon and evening. I am still not completely convinced that showers will arrive Sunday and not Monday, but with that being said Sunday night into Monday do appear to be rather wet compared to recent days. 

Cooler temps are here to stay for now 

The past week has been pretty refreshing with temps remaining slightly below normal. Luckily, this is expected to continue into next week and weekend. While daily high and lows may vary, our 6 to 10 day outlooks give us a high chance of remaining below average for our temperatures and slightly above average for precipitation.

The Climate Prediction Center keeps the Mid-South in below normal temperatures from next Tuesday through next Saturday. (NOAA/CPC)
The Climate Prediction Center keeps the Mid-South on the cusp between normal and slightly above normal in terms of precipitation. (NOAA/CPC)

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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