Saturday, December 12, 2015

November 2015 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

November Recap

Above average temperatures continued for the third straight month in November. In fact, this was the 4th warmest November on record. The month was also much wetter than average, becoming the 8th wettest November in recorded history, thanks to multiple heavy rain events. For the year, the average temperature at Memphis International Airport is 65.0°, which is 0.8 degrees above normal. After running a deficit for much of the year, precipitation for 2015 is up to 47.89", which is right at normal (0.05" below average).

There were fairly minor severe weather reports in November during a few different events. Wind damage, mainly in the formed of downed trees, occurred on the evening of the 17th in multiple locations across Shelby County as a line of storms moved through. Flooding was reported in western DeSoto County on the evening of the 17th. Also, isolated wind damage occurred in Tipton County on the morning of the 6th and the evening of the 11th.

Meteorological fall, defined by the months of September, October, and November, concluded with above average temps and precipitation. In fact, it was the 5th warmest fall on record with an average temperature of 67.2 degrees (3.0 degrees above normal). Precipitation totaled 13.92", which was 1.36" above normal.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 57.8 degrees (4.6 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 66.7 degrees (4.1 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 48.9 degrees (5.2 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 81 degrees (5th)
Coolest temperature: 28 degrees (23rd)
Records set or tied: Maximum low temperature records were set on the 4th (67°) and tied on the 5th (66°) and 27th (63°).
Comments: November 2015 was the 4th warmest November on record. Only 3 daily average temperatures were cooler than 1 degree below normal. Eight days were at least 10 degrees above average.

Monthly total: 10.16" (4.67" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 11 (1.5 day above normal)
Wettest 24-hour period: 3.31" (17th to 18th)
Total Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: None
Comments: November 2015 was the 8th wettest November on record

Peak wind: Southeast/47 mph (17th)
Average wind: 7.1 mph
Average relative humidity: 67%
Average sky cover: 60%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 53.1 degrees
Average high temperature: 65.9 degrees
Average low temperature: 46.1 degrees
Warmest temperature: 79.7 degrees (5th)
Coolest temperature: 25.1 degrees (23rd)
Comments: None.

Monthly total: 10.39" (automated rain gauge), 11.41" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 11
Wettest date: 3.59" (17th) (via automated gauge)
Total Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Peak wind: East/33 mph (17th)
Average relative humidity: 75%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.59 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 56%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.51 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 60%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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