Monday, December 8, 2014

November 2014 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

November Recap

November was a cold and dry month across the Mid-South. In fact, the month tied for the 7th coldest on record. The cold also led to some of the earliest snowfall on record with two measurable events - the 4th and 7th earliest on record. Though it was a cold month, for the months of September-November (defined as meteorological fall), the average temperature was just 1.2 degrees below normal due to slightly above normal temps in September and October. Precipitation for the same three-month period was 1.25" below average at 11.31". There was no severe weather during November.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 47.4 degrees (5.8 degrees below average)
Average high temperature: 56.5 degrees
Average low temperature: 38.2 degrees
Warmest temperature: 75 degrees (4th)
Coolest temperature: 20 degrees (18th)
Records set or tied: Record warmest low temperature - 61 on the 30th
Comments: November 2014 ranked as the 7th coldest November on record (since 1875). Ten days saw temperatures fall below 32, which is 7 above normal. For the year, the average temperature at Memphis is 62.6 degrees, which is 2.1 degrees below average.

Monthly total: 2.56" (2.93" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 8
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.46" (4th-5th)
Total Snowfall: 0.2" (0.2" above average)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Measurable snow fell on two days in November (0.1" each), which marked the 4th and 7th earliest measurable snowfalls on record. Only two days had precipitation above 0.50". As of the end of November, the yearly precipitation has been 55.03", which is 7.09" above (or 115% of) average.

Peak wind: South/43 mph (30th)
Average wind: 8.5 mph
Average relative humidity: 61%
Average sky cover: 50%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 45.9 degrees
Average high temperature: 56.1 degrees
Average low temperature: 35.5 degrees
Warmest temperature: 74.6 degrees (4th)
Coolest temperature: 19.1 degrees (18th)
Comments: None

Monthly total: 2.81" (automated rain gauge), 2.86" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 11
Wettest date: 1.13" (5th) (via automated gauge)
Comments: None

Peak wind: Southwest/30 mph (29th)
Average relative humidity: 73%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.51 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 59%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.34 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 65%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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