Friday, September 5, 2014

August 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy

August Recap

Through July, each month in 2014 had experienced below normal average temperatures. In fact, it had been 10 months since Memphis had an "above average" month temperature-wise. That streak ended with an average temperature for the month of August  0.5 degrees above normal. The highest temperature for the month (100, which tied a record high) was the first 100-degree reading in just over two years. Despite the slightly warmer than average month, the average temperature for the year through August ranks 22nd coolest on record (a span of 140 years).

Precipitation-wise, the dry pattern from July continued into August. In fact, until the last two days of the month, the rainfall total for the month was less than 1", resulting in dry vegetation and browning Bermuda across the region! For the year, precipitation is still 124% of normal, or over 8" above normal. The only severe weather in August was wind damage in DeSoto County (Horn Lake) on the 24th from a downburst produced by a summer thunderstorm.

For the period June-August, which is defined as "meteorological summer," temperatures were cooler than normal by 1.5 degrees (79.9 degree average) and precipitation was well above normal (17.76", +6.66" compared to normal) fueled by a record-breaking June.

Average "meteorological summer" temps by year for all years on record for Memphis, TN. 2014 continued the downward trend of the past 3 year and was near climatological average.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 82.5 degrees (0.5 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 91.7 degrees
Average low temperature: 73.4 degrees
Warmest temperature: 100 degrees (24th)
Coolest temperature: 63 degrees (14th)
Records set or tied: Tied record high of 100 on the 24th and tied record high minimum of 79 on the 25th.
Comments: 23 days had maximum temperatures at or above 90, four above the climatological average. The record high of 100 on the 24th was the first 100-degree reading in 25 months, last recorded on July 30, 2012 (101). For the year, the average temperature at Memphis is 62.5 degrees, which is 2.5 degrees below average.

Monthly total: 1.80" (1.08" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 8
Wettest 24-hour period: 0.85" (August 30-31)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Zero days had more than 1" of rain and only one day recorded more than 0.50". As of the end of August, the yearly precipitation has been 43.72", which is 8.34" above (or 124% of) average.

Peak wind: West/37 mph (7th)
Average wind: 6.2 mph
Average relative humidity: 64%
Average sky cover: 40%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Daily August temperature readings (blue bars) overlaid on the normal temperatures (brown) with record highs (red) and lows (blue).

Cirrus Weather Solutions /, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 80.3 degrees
Average high temperature: 91.9 degrees
Average low temperature: 69.9 degrees
Warmest temperature: 99.7 degrees (23rd)
Coolest temperature: 57.5 degrees (14th)
Comments: 22 days had high temperatures at or above 90. The warmest low temperature was 77.6 on the 20th.

Monthly total: 1.49" (automated rain gauge), 1.46" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 7
Wettest date: 0.96" (31st) (via automated gauge)
Comments: 1.27" of the 1.49" recorded this month fell in the last 3 days of August. The 31st was the only day of the month with more than 1/2".

Peak wind: Southwest/21 mph (7th)
Average relative humidity: 77%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.27 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 88%
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.42 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 80%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit on the web or on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

No comments: