Monday, October 14, 2013

Rain is almost a certainty tomorrow, but why?

As always we'll begin the blog with a synopsis of current weather. Lets start with a visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Octave in the eastern Pacific Ocean:

Visible Satellite Image of Tropical Storm Octave at 14Z (7AM Pacific)
But wait, isn't this a blog for Memphis weather?! Why in the world do we care about what is going on in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Well, often times meteorologists have to look at the bigger picture to understand what is going on with the weather locally.

GOES-Composite Rainbow Infrared Image at 1345Z (8:45AM Central)
This infrared satellite image gives you a much better idea of why Tropical Storm Octave matters. The moisture, shown in the green and yellow colors, is streaming northeast from the eastern Pacific into the southern US. Increasing clouds can be expected into tonight with a slight chance of a shower by morning. Better chances of rain arrive tomorrow.

Weather Prediction Center's 48-hour forecast valid at 00Z Wednesday (7PM Tuesday)
Best chances of rain, including the heaviest activity, should arrive by Tuesday evening as a cold front slowly pushes this stream of tropical moisture directly over the Mid-South. Rain will continue well into tomorrow night with some lingering precipitation Wednesday morning.

24-hour forecast rainfall from 7am Tuesday through 7am Wednesday, indicating over 1.5 inches over Memphis

The reason Tropical Storm Octave is so important is because of how much it increases overall precipitation amounts. Of course we would probably still get rain if Octave was not a factor, but that tropical moisture enhances our precipitation totals by quite a bit. The Weather Prediction Center has a 2 inch bulls-eye just southwest of Memphis. Precipitation totals of 1-2 inches are certainly expected across the Mid-South. [EP: Severe weather chances are minimal despite some thunder possible Tuesday afternoon/evening.]

Mostly cloudy conditions are expected for most of the day Wednesday as the front passes through the Mid-South. Once the cold front and rain has finally cleared our area, expect clearing skies and much cooler air to push into the region. We may even get a glimpse of a sunset Wednesday night!

William's Memphis Forecast

Increasing clouds with a high of 80, low of 66.

Cloudy with a chance of rain, becoming rainy by the evening. High of 77, low of 56.

Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy overnight with a high of 70, low of 51.

 --William Churchill (MWN Social Media Intern)

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