Friday, July 5, 2013

June 2013 Climate Data and MWN Forecast Accuracy

Like April and May, June was wetter than normal at the airport, however the precipitation was not evenly spread across the metro and some places came in much drier than normal.  Temperatures were just slightly above average and there were no temperature records set during the month.  There were two severe weather episodes - on the 5th and 28th.  Storms on the 5th prompted Tornado Warnings for the metro and a waterspout was spotted on the Mississippi River from a storm.  No damage was reported.  On the 28th, a severe cluster of storms (mesoscale convective system) prompted warnings and knocked out power to 8000+ MLGW customers early in the morning.  However the most memorable event was a photogenic outflow boundary that strafed the metro.  Climate details for June can be found below.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

The average temperature for the month of June was 79.8 degrees, or 0.2 degrees above normal. The average high temperature was 88.9 degrees and the average low was 70.6 degrees. The coolest temperature of the month was 61 degrees on the 8th, while the highest temperature was 97 degrees on the 27th.  For the year, Memphis is 0.9 degrees below average temperature-wise.

Precipitation for the month totaled 5.47", which was 1.84" above the average monthly rainfall. Daily rainfall records were set on two days - the 17th (2.45") and 27th (1.34").  There were 7 calendar days with measurable rainfall, four of which recorded at least 0.5" and two which saw 1" or more.  Through June 30, annual precipitation at Memphis is over 12" above the 30-year average.

The maximum 24-hour rainfall was the record 2.45" on the 7th. The peak wind gust was 53 mph from the west on the 27th with an average wind speed for the month of 7.3 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions, Bartlett, TN

The average June temperature at Cirrus Weather Solutions was 78.3 degrees with a maximum of 98.9 degrees on the 27th and a minimum of 57.7 degrees on the 8th. June precipitation measured only 2.20" via the Cirrus automated gauge and 2.17" in a manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program, less than half of what the airport reported. The measured peak wind gust was 26 mph on the 28th. Average relative humidity was a sticky 75%. Click here for a daily recap on

MWN Forecast Accuracy

For the month of June, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 1.43 degrees, lower than all available computer data models lest one (the NAM) and the National Weather Service forecasts. Over 85% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast averaged 2.22 degrees error and fell within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint 67% of the time. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit on the web or on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring a fresh new interface and StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

No comments: