Friday, December 2, 2011

November 2011 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

November reversed October's trend of cool and dry weather by averaging warmer and wetter conditions than normal for the month.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

The average temperature for the month of November was 55.9 degrees, which was 2.7 degrees above normal. The average high temperature was 64.7 degrees and the average low was 47.1. The coolest temperature of the month was 31 degrees on the 29th and 30th, while the highest temperature was 79 degrees set on the 14th.  The low temperatures of 31 on the last two days of the month were the only two days in which freezing temperatures were recorded, ending the 2011 growing season at 261 days or 30 more than the average season.

Precipitation for the month totaled 7.71", which was 2.22" above average.  There were 11 days with measurable rainfall (all recorded at least 0.10") and 5 of those days had more than 0.50". The greatest 24-hour total was 2.30" on the 21st. The peak wind gust was 45 mph on the 13th with an average wind speed for the month of 10.0 mph. Snowfall for the month totaled 0.1" due to a snow storm that brought 0.1" on the 29th and a trace on the 30th.  Areas in the northern metro region saw snowfall totals of 1-2" from this snow event.  Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions, Bartlett, TN

The average November temperature at Cirrus Weather Solutions in north Bartlett was 54.0 degrees with a maximum of 77.9 degrees on the 14th and a minimum of 24.4 degrees on the 18th.  November precipitation was slightly less than the Memphis airport, totaling 8.27", which was the wettest month at Cirrus Weather Solutions since May. A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 8.84". Snowfall totaled 0.5" on the 29th and a trace on the 30th. The peak wind gust was 33 mph on the 13th. Average relative humidity was 71%. Click here for a daily recap on

MWN Forecast Accuracy

For the month of November, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 2.70 degrees, lower than all compared computer models including the NWS by at least 12%. Over 55% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast beat all data sources, averaging 2.40 degrees error and falling within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint almost 66% of the time. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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