Thursday, August 5, 2010

July Climate Stats and MWN Forecast Accuracy

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
July continued the very warm pattern that began in June. A streak of consecutive days with high temperatures at or above average ended on the 13th at 53 days. For the month, the average temperature was 84.9 degrees, which was 2.4 degrees above normal and ranked as the 7th warmest July on record. The average high temperature was 93.8 degrees, with only one day not reaching a high of at least 90 (89 on the 17th). The maximum temperature for the month was 98 degrees on the 31st and the lowest was 69 on the 2nd. No daily temperature records were set during July. Also of note: the period of June and July combined were the 2nd warmest June/July period on record, trailing only the historic summer of 1980 by a mere 0.2 degrees!

As far as precipitation was concerned, the vast majority of the month continued the dry trend of June. However, a deluge at mid-month caused the precipitation total for the month of 6.30" to end up 2.08" above normal. There were 8 days with measurable rainfall. One the 12th-13th, a total of 5.56" of rain fell, or 88% of the month's total. A precipitation record was set on the 12th with 4.56" of rain recorded. The peak wind gust was 44 mph, also on the 26th. Click here for the NWS climate recap for July.

Bartlett, TN
Bartlett also saw a very warm and wet month. The average temperature for July at the WXLIVE! station in north Bartlett was 83.7 degrees with a maximum of 98.7 on the 31st and a minimum of 60.9 degrees on the 2nd. The high temperature failed to reach 90 on only 2 days (including 89.9 on the 1st).

After a dry June, July precipitation ended up well above normal with a precipitation total of 8.07", including 4 days with rainfall totals of 1" or greater. A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 8.42" in July. The peak wind gust was 27 mph on the 26th. Click here for a daily statistical recap on

MWN Forecast Accuracy
For the month of July, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 1.67 degrees, the best among all compared computer models (by more than 20%) and the National Weather Service (by 2.4%). MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). Over 77% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of actual. For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast was also the best of the data sources at 1.64 degrees average error and was within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint 75% of the time. More detailed accuracy statistics can be found here.

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