Friday, May 1, 2009

Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, throughout the weekend

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Memphis metro area under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather all the way through Monday morning. I expect most thunderstorms to be diurnally-driven, which means they will occur during maximum heating - afternoon and evening hours - today and tomorrow, as a cold front sags south and stall over the region. Some of these storms could be strong enough to produce a damaging wind gust or large hail.

The situation changes a little on Sunday. By then, a potent upper-level shortwave will be sweeping across the southern Plains, dragging a cold front with it. The severe weather threat will be mainly confined to this feature, which will move through the Mid-South sometime between late afternoon and the overnight hours Sunday. I expect we will see a squall line with potentially high wind, some large hail, and maybe the threat of tornadoes. Stay in touch with and the MWN forecast for the latest.

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