Summer showed up! How about a reprieve?

Wow, May has flown by! Between commitments to Memphis in May, work, and shuffling the #TeamMWN intern deck, the blog has taken a backseat! Time to get back to business!

Summer's arrival

I know you didn't miss its arrival, because it kind of came right in the front door without knocking!

It seems like an eternity ago, but the second week of May was darn pleasant with highs in the 60s and 70s. We should have known it couldn't last! The past two weeks have averaged 14 degrees above normal. Historically speaking, May 15-28, 2019 was the 4th warmest such period on record with an average temperature of 79.0 degrees. In fact, I'm not sure which is hotter - the weather or Penny Hardaway's recruiting of late!

A reprieve in the form of a cold front

As the upper level ridge of high pressure that has dominated the weather in the southeast U.S. breaks down and a new ridge sets up shop to our north, a cold front will push through the Mid-South on Thursday. (Incidentally, this southeast ridge/west coast trough pattern has also been responsible for the repeated severe weather episodes in the Plains and Midwest lately.)

Storms to our northwest will weaken considerably before the remaining precipitation moves through the region tonight into Thursday. I say "remaining" precipitation because as the pattern breaks down, the forcing for showers and thunderstorms also weakens. That leaves us with perhaps not as much widespread rainfall as we could use after a couple of dry weeks. Over the next 24 hours, most places in the greater metro will receive less than 1/4", while a few spots may see little to no rain at all.

NOAA's precipitation forecast through Thursday evening calls for the heaviest precipitation to remain to our west, with light amounts expected over the metro, even with frontal passage tomorrow. (NWS/WPC via Pivotal Weather)

The good news with the front is it brings an end to the 90s for at least a couple of days and allows dewpoints to fall into the 50s to lower 60s - much more comfortable than the humid air we've had of late! The lower dewpoints also means our overnight lows will drop back into the 60s starting Thursday night and continuing into the weekend. And while high temperatures rebound to near 90 this weekend after a couple of days in the mid 80s, the suppressed humidity levels should mean negligible heat indices. It'll just feel like 90 instead of 95-97!

This weekend and beyond

Overall, we should have a mainly dry weekend and early part of next week before the pattern starts to shift again and precipitation chances rise by mid-week as humid air also makes a return. Overall, temperatures will likely average a bit above normal for the first half of June with precipitation also likely to be a bit above average.

The temperature outlook from NOAA for June 6-12 indicates slight odds towards a warmer than average second week of June in the Mid-South. (NOAA/COC via Pivotal Weather)

The precipitation outlook from NOAA for June 6-12 indicates good odds of a wetter than average second week of June in the Mid-South. (NOAA/COC via Pivotal Weather)

Mobile apps

On a bit of a side note, the MemphisWeather.net and StormWatch+ iOS apps have been updated in the App Store with some speed improvements for those who utilize StormWatch+ Alerts and the restoral of a couple of features that had to be "re-worked" in previous released. You can update your apps in the App Store, or use the links below to learn more and download if you've never been an MWN app consumer! Our daily forecast, as well as radar, satellite, severe weather outlooks, current conditions from around the metro, and much more are all in one neat little package! (Android users: your update will be out within a matter of days!)

For those that have made it this far, I'll also drop one more little nugget... this round of app updates is likely to be one of the last (unless there are bug fixes) for this iteration of the MWN and StormWatch+ apps. We have an all-new design and some exciting new features that we are working on pushing out later this year! Stay tuned!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

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Sunny & hot for now, t'storms return Sunday

While it may not officially be summer yet, the rest of this week and next week sure do feel like summertime. Luckily, rain chances will stay away now through Saturday leaving us with some pretty nice and warm conditions. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return on Sunday, before hanging around throughout next week. Besides that, highs will remain in the 80s for the foreseeable future.

Rest of today

Following what was a busy evening yesterday for some with severe thunderstorms across the area, we are expecting a much more quiet and tranquil evening tonight. Temps will remain in the 80s until sunset, before falling to 68 overnight under clear skies. 

Friday

Another sunny, warm and muggy day is on tap for tomorrow as highs will reach 89. I would not be surprised if it feels like the 90s tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. If you are planning to head out to the World Championship Barbecue Cooking Contest, I would be sure to bring sunscreen and stay hydrated. It will definitely feel like summertime tomorrow. 

Saturday

If you had to choose between Saturday and Sunday for a day outside, Saturday is definitely the day to do so. Sunny skies and warm temperatures return once again with highs nearing 87. Things will get a bit breezy in the afternoon, with sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts upwards of 25-30 mph. Cloud coverage may begin to increase in the afternoon as well, otherwise Saturday looks incredible. 

While shower chances should hold off until Sunday, we will need to keep an eye out for some pesky pop-up thunderstorms Saturday evening. The chance is small, but the chance is there. Hopefully showers will hold off until after midnight. 

Sunday into next week

After a beautiful Saturday, Sunday does not appear to be as nice. While highs will be in the low 80s, showers and thunderstorms will likely put a damper on our day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to pass through the area through the morning into the afternoon hours. While thunderstorms will be possible, widespread severe weather is not expected. 

GFS shows showers and thunderstorms passing through the Mid-South on Sunday. (Tropical Tidbits)

As we look into next week, we will continue to transition into a summertime weather pattern. Highs are expected to be above average, with temps reaching the mid to upper 80s. 

The Climate Prediction Center shows temperatures will be above average next week throughout the Mid-South. (NOAA/CPC)

With this summertime pattern, shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible through the first half of the week with the best chances in the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday.

Summer Outlook

Every year around this time, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) releases their June, July, August three-month outlook, otherwise referred to as their summer outlook. For much of the Mid-South, the CPC is expecting relatively near average temperatures across the area with slightly above average precipitation. While this is an overall trend (meaning we could have periods of warmer/cooler weather), it is promising to see.

CPC three-month outlook for temperatures shows near average temperatures for much of the Mid-South this summer. (NOAA/CPC)

CPC three-month outlook for precipitation shows slightly above average precipitation for much of the Mid-South this summer. (NOAA/CPC)

Farewell Note

On a personal note, this will be my last full-time blog for MWN. I have thoroughly enjoyed getting to know the Memphis area over the past year. As a fellow Tennessean, I have always loved working in different areas across the state. I would also like to thank Erik for the opportunity and guidance/mentoring over the past year. The Memphis community will always hold a special place in my heart. As for me, I will be working full-time this summer for the NWS office in Nashville, TN before returning back to Mississippi State this fall to finish up and complete year two of my master's degree.

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

[ Editor's Note: Caroline has been an amazing addition to the MemphisWeather.net team over the past year. I had high expectations based on a very strong reference from another outfit like MWN based in middle TN. Honestly, she exceeded those expectations. I can't thank her enough for the time and dedication she offered to MWN and all of you. Her future in meteorology is bright and I have no doubt she will be a superstar wherever her path leads. Thank you Caroline! You'll always be a part of #TeamMWN in my book!  --Erik ]

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder