Is fall finally here to stay?

The seasons may have turned over a new leaf to fall at the end of last week, but Mother Nature overslept her alarm. The past week in the Mid-South has felt more like August than September, but change is now arriving thanks to a friendly cold front that moved through on Wednesday.

A Friendly Front?

Most of the time, when we talk about fronts, we lead with rain and precipitation. That's not the case with this system though, as the front has shifted most of its wet weather to Texas and points southwest. As the high pressure airmass trailing the front arrives in the Memphis area early Thursday, we can expect cooler conditions and less humidity. Highs on Thursday should be a good ten degrees cooler from what we have seen this week.

High pressure will be the controlling feature behind a mainly "dry" cold front that moved through Memphis on Wednesday.

This high pressure takes control over most of the Southeast heading into the weekend, with partly to mostly sunny skies the dominant theme over the next several days. Very little to almost no chance of rain can be seen in the forecast from Thursday all the way into the beginning of next week.

A Break in the Heat...For Now

Temperature-wise, we will see a return to near normal for Thursday with highs near 80 and lows Friday morning near 60. It's a near carbon copy for Friday and Saturday, too, with highs again close to 80 and lows right around 60. Some of the suburbs and rural areas could drop lower, into the upper 50s.

A moderate warm-up is in the forecast to start next week, with highs on Sunday reaching the low 80s. Lows will continue to hover around 60. Your work week begins on Monday with highs in the low 80s as well, but warming into the mid 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows too will be on the rise, into the low to mid 60s once again. It will still be a nice relief for most, with conditions not as humid as the last several days.

The break from the heat for the first few days of October could be broken by the second week, however. While we continue to expect things to be mostly dry, Mother Nature could have another warm spell in the cards for the Memphis area soon.

Are you excited to finally see fall arriving in the Mid-South? Or are you longing for the days of summer to return? Stick with MWN for the best forecasts for the Mid-South area, updated daily online and on your mobile device. Be sure to also follow us on Facebook and Twitter for the top social media weather coverage in the Memphis area.

Meteorologist Alex Herbst
MWN Social Media Intern

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Don't fall for it... this isn't fall!

In Sunday's blog post, we warned you this was going to happen:

"Overall, it appears we may be stuck in a warmer than normal overall pattern (though not necessarily as warm as the next several days) right through the end of the month. The long-range upper level pattern favored by climate models indicate a return to cooler than average weather by around the first of October."

I hate to say it but...

Indeed we were back in the lower 90s this week with humidity levels into the "average for mid-summer" range. Today we reiterate the point made earlier - above normal temperatures continue almost through the end of the month. This despite the start of "meteorological fall" (which is September 1 and used for climate purposes) and astronomical fall (when the autumnal equinox occurs at 3:02pm today). But you're smart enough to know, this isn't fall weather!

In fact, by a 3:1 margin in our unofficial poll, you're ready for REAL fall.

MWN POLL: Are you ready for fall weather or wish we could keep summer a little while longer?

— MemphisWeather.net (@memphisweather1) September 20, 2017

So when will that happen? Thursday, September 28. Until then, we are stuck with a large ridge of warm high pressure blocking fall weather to our west from making it into the area. We're not alone - here's the temperature map as of Friday mid-morning:

The upper level trough to the west will finally make a push east remain bottled up in the western U.S. until early next week, then finally start to seep east. We'll see a front move through sometime Wednesday of next week. Until then, we'll continue with highs generally within a couple degrees of 90° for highs and lows at 70° or above for the most part with only slim chances of afternoon showers. Summer continues...

The one bit of good news as we head into the weekend is that the dewpoints (remember that is an absolute measure of humidity in the air that doesn't change as much as relative humidity does with the diurnal cycle) are receding a bit into the mid to upper 60s from their recent levels at or just above 70°. What that means is that it won't be QUITE as sticky out and low temperatures should get a couple of degrees cooler in the mornings.

Not exactly the best news, but it's a start! However, by late next week, starting around Thursday, we'll be back to near normal temperatures (which will be closer to 80° for highs and 60° for lows). Plus, long-range climate models are pointing to below normal temperatures and precipitation to start October. Looking for highs in the 70s? We could be just about a week away!

So to sum it up...

Click here to get the latest forecast from MemphisWeather.net or check it anytime via the MWN mobile app!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder