November 2023 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

November Climate Recap

The month of November was generally warm and averaged more than a two degrees above normal. The start of the month was below freezing the morning of the 1st, with temps only making it to the low 50's during the afternoon. Temperatures warmed to the low 70's by the 4th, and into the low 80's on the 6th through 8th, but fell to the 60's by the 10th. High temperatures generally remained in the 60's to near 70 degrees through mid-month, dropping back to the 50's by the 21st. On Thanksgiving, we were near 60 degrees, with highs back in the upper 40's to near 50 to finish out the month.

Departure from normal temperatures for November for the Lower 48 states

Below normal precipitation trends continued in November. The ongoing drought improved somewhat in Tennessee, but much of north Mississippi continues to experience severe to extreme drought, with exceptional drought further south.  The image below highlights the drought conditions as of November 28th, and the second one shows the improvement (green) or worsening (yellow) drought conditions. There was no severe weather during the month, although thunderstorms with heavy rain affected the metro on the 20th.

Current drought conditions as of November 28th, 2023

Change in drought conditions from October 31st to November 28th

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 55.0 degrees (2.3 degrees above average) 

Average high temperature: 65.4 degrees (2.8 degrees above average) 

Average low temperature: 44.6 degrees (1.7 degrees above average) 

Warmest temperature: 84 degrees (8th) 

Coolest temperature: 29 degrees (27th) 

Heating Degrees Days: 313 (66 below average)

Cooling Degree Days: 22 (10 above average) 

Records set or tied: Record highs on the 6th (81) and 8th (84); record high tied on the 7th (83)

Comments: None

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 3.02" (1.67" below average) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 6 (3.0 days below average) 

Wettest 24-hour period: 1.54" (20th) 

Snowfall: None

Records set or tied: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: Southwest/40 mph (8th) 

Average wind: 6.3 mph 

Average relative humidity: 62%

Average sky cover: 47%

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

 

MemphisWeather.net Headquarters, Bartlett, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 51.5 degrees 

Average high temperature: 64.0 degrees 

Average low temperature: 40.7 degrees 

Warmest temperature: 82.6 degrees (8th) 

Coolest temperature: 26.6 degrees (27th) 

Comments: The high of 80.4 degrees on the 6th broke the previous record high of 78.1 for that day in 2005.

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 2.51" (automated rain gauge), 2.62" (CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 4

Wettest date: 1.41" (20th) (via automated gauge) 

Snowfall: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: South/26 mph (8th)

Average relative humidity: 72% 

Average barometric pressure: 30.15 in.

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

 

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.15 degrees 

MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 59% 

MWN average dewpoint error: 2.39 degrees 

MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 69% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Rainy and breezy as the calendar flips, but what about the weekend?

A generally cool and dry pattern changes for a few days as we head to the end of November and into the last month of 2023. A storm system exiting the Rockies and heading across the southern Plains and into the Deep South will bring us rainfall and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the next 36 hours. It could also affect your outdoor Christmas decor! But it is also a weekend chock full of seasonal activities, so what about rain chances and temperatures for the weekend? Let's dive in!

Thursday/Thursday night

A bit milder weather is expected tonight with southerly wind and high clouds moving in as temperatures only reach the 30s in rural areas. The rest of us will see lows at or above 40 tonight. Clouds thicken tomorrow as low pressure moves through the southern Plains and rain spreads towards the Mid-South, arriving around mid-afternoon as temperatures peak near 60. Rain picks up heading into the evening with a few rumbles of thunder possible as well. 

Forecast precipitation via the NWS National Blend of Models shows totals should generally run above a half inch, but less than an inch in the metro. (WeatherBell)

Southerly wind also increases Thursday night with frequent gusts to 30 mph and a few possibly approaching 40 mph! A Wind Advisory has been issued so make sure the outdoor decor is tied down well, or maybe just moved inside if possible for those inflatables! Temperatures remain mild overnight - in the 50s - as rain falls much of the night. 

Probability of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph on Thursday (night). Frequent gusts above 30 mph are likely. (NWS-Memphis)

Friday/Saturday

Most rain will be gone by Friday morning, but with the front still to our west as it's parent low pressure center moves into the mid-Mississippi Valley, it will remain mild with a breezy southwest wind. High temperatures should be well above average despite persistent cloud cover, peaking in the upper 60s. 

The Friday morning weather map shows rain moving to the east as a cold front approaches from the west. The front arrives Friday evening dry. (NWS/WPC)

Behind the cold front on Friday evening (which will pass through with no additional rainfall), temperatures drop to the mid to upper 40s Saturday morning before rising to the lower 60s in the afternoon. Clouds will continue to stream overhead with a north wind at 5-10 mph. Overall, it should be a pretty good day for the St. Jude Memphis Marathon and other outdoor activities.

Sunday and beyond

As the late-week system finally pulls to the east, sunshine returns Sunday and continues through the first half of the week, at least. Temperatures will be a bit cooler, but not cold, with lows mostly in the 40s and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s until Wednesday when it gets a bit cooler. Overall, not much to complain about with this forecast! 

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder