July 2021 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

July Climate Recap

Temperature trends from the previous few months continued in July with nearly every day in the first three weeks averaging cooler than normal. In fact, the typically hot July 4th weekend featured morning lows in the mid 60s and highs in the mid 80s. The cool pattern changed heading into the last week of the month as hot, dry and humid summer weather finally arrived. The result was an average temperatures that was a little more than a degree below average for the month. The number of 90 degree days ended 5 days below normal at 17 days. 

Precipitation ended the month almost an inch above average at 5.73", with most of it falling prior to the heat arriving in the last third of the month. The only severe weather of the month occurred  around mid-day on the 9th as very heavy rain trained along the TN/MS state line, prompting Flash Flood  and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and reports of flooding in DeSoto and northwest Marshall Counties. Isolated flash flooding also occurred on the late afternoon of the 1st in western Shelby County. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings also were issued in the metro on the 10th and 11th with no severe weather reports. 

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 81.6 degrees (1.2 degrees below average) 

Average high temperature: 89.6 degrees (2.3 degrees below average) 

Average low temperature: 73.6 degrees (0.0 degrees below average) 

Warmest temperature: 96 degrees (28th, 30th, 31st) 

Coolest temperature: 65 degrees (4th) 

Heating Degrees Days: 0 (0 above average)

Cooling Degree Days: 525 (25 below average) 

Records set or tied: None

Comments: There were 17 days with high temperatures above 90 degrees, which is 5 days below average for July.

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 5.73" (0.91" above average) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 13 (3.5 days above average) 

Wettest 24-hour period: 1.89" (9th) 

Snowfall: 0.0"

Records set or tied: Daily record on July 9th (1.89")

Comments: Five days recorded precipitation of more than an one-half inch, while July averages 3.3 days.

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: East/51 mph (18th) 

Average wind: 6.7 mph 

Average relative humidity: 73% 

Average sky cover: 51% 

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

 

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 80.2 degrees 

Average high temperature: 90.5 degrees 

Average low temperature: 71.6 degrees 

Warmest temperature: 98.7 degrees (31st) 

Coolest temperature: 60.0 degrees (4th) 

Comments: None 

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 5.05" (automated rain gauge), 5.24"(manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 9

Wettest date: 2.83" (11th) (via automated gauge) 

Snowfall: 0.0"

Comments: None

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: North/19mph (27th)

Average relative humidity: 81% 

Average barometric pressure: 29.97in. Hg

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

 

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.54 degrees 

MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 84% 

MWN average dewpoint error: 1.24 degrees 

MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 88% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

 

Climate Outlook - August 2021

The August climate outlook for the United States from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Above average temperatures are forecast for the western U.S. across the northern tier into the Northeast with highest odds across the Northern Plains. Below average temperatures are forecast in the Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley. Odds favor very near average temperatures for Memphis with a 35% chance of below average temperatures and a 32% chance of above average conditions. The average temperature for August is 82.1 degrees, just slightly below the July average.

Precipitation is expected to be above normal for much of the southeastern U.S. east into the Mid-Atlantic and north into the Ohio Valley, with highest odds in the eastern Carolinas. Additional above average precipitation is forecast for the Desert Southwest. Below average precipitation is forecast for the Northern Plains. For Memphis, odds are slightly in favor of above average precipitation (36%) versus a 31% chance of below average precipitation. Rainfall historically averages only 3.37 inches.

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A reprieve from mid-summer heat and humidity this week

The first three weeks of July featured temperatures largely below average, but the past week made up for that, reminding us just what Memphis summers typically feel like! The daily temperatures for the past eight days averaged nearly 4 degrees above normal with high temperatures consistently in the mid 90s and feels like temperatures reaching heat advisory criteria (105°+) on multiple days - a few even topping 110°! So what does the next week hold? A nice break from the heat!

Overall pattern

The upper level atmospheric weather pattern over the past week featured a large ridge of high pressure that built over the region, resulting in those above average temperatures. However, with the passage of last night's surface cold front, the upper level pattern also shifts. A trough of low pressure over the northeastern quarter of the nation dips south, then into the week lingers over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys before finally weakening and lifting out by the end of the week. 

Lower pressure aloft typically means cooler temperatures at the surface. Coupled with the passage of a series of upper level disturbances rotating through the upper level trough that result in periods of cloud cover, temperatures will be well below average for much of the upcoming week. 

The European model ensemble of upper level height anomalies for the coming week. In short, lower than average pressure aloft is shown in blue and higher than average is in yellow. The blue colors that move over the Mid-South  mean low pressure aloft, which translates to cooler than average temperatures. (WxBell)

Early-week cool temps

In the wake of Sunday's cold front and arrival of the upper level trough, we'll see a fair amount of cloud cover Sunday night into Monday, then partly cloudy skies on Tuesday. A north to northeast wind, dry conditions, and dewpoints falling into the low to mid 60s will set the stage for very pleasant conditions for early August with highs in the mid 80s and lows dropping to around 70 Monday morning and the mid 60s Tuesday morning.

Mid-week persistence

We'll see more sunshine on Wednesday with just partly cloudy skies as highs remain in the mid 80s. Morning lows start in the mid 60s in the city but could drop a few degrees cooler in outlying areas. A bit of warming occurs Thursday with highs in the upper 80s, but with humidity still remaining below average, there still won't be much to complain about!

More warming into the weekend

By the end of the week, temperatures start to climb further as the upper level trough pulls out and higher pressure aloft results in warmer temps below. A passing upper disturbance could mean a few showers Friday, but that is still too far out for anything conclusive. Highs will be at or just above 90. Sunshine returns Saturday with highs back near average in the low 90s and lows returning to the low 70s. Sunday into the following week (as schools return for many students) could be back above normal with highs in the mid 90s, so enjoy this coming week while we have it!

Forecast temperatures for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend. (WeatherModels)

Erik Proseus

MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder