October 2017 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

October Climate Recap

Temperatures ended up slightly above average for the month, though the first half of the month featured more above average days, while the second half of the month saw more below average temperatures. In the early half of October, there were several days in the upper 80s and one day reached 92 degrees, which set a record for the date (9th). The tide turned at mid-month with more 60s and 70s, and even a couple of days with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. According to the National Weather Service, the low of 31 degrees on the 29th was the first sub-freezing low temperature in the month of October in 24 years!

How RARE is a freeze for Memphis in October? Well, you have to go back 24 years (1993 ) for the last one. #tnwx #ClimateSocial pic.twitter.com/YGHXn5N5LF

— NWS Memphis (@NWSMemphis) October 30, 2017

Except for two days of the month, October was also dry. However that was offset by a 2.50" rain event on the 10th and another one inch-plus soaker on the 27th. Those two days totals over 90% of the monthly precipitation. The rain on the 10th was also not evenly distributed, as MWN's Bartlett weather station only recorded 0.41", thus ending the month well below normal. There was no severe weather for the month and no warnings issued.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature
Average temperature: 65.2 degrees (1.1 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 75.8 degrees (1.4 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 54.6 degrees (0.8 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 92 degrees (9th)
Coolest temperature: 31 degrees (29th)
Heating Degrees Days: 128 (8 above average)
Cooling Degree Days: 143 (51 above average)
Records set or tied: Record warm minimum temperature tied on the 8th (72 degrees). Record high temperature set on the 9th (92 degrees).
Comments: Year to date, the average temperature of 68.0° is tied for the fourth warmest on record.

Precipitation
Monthly total: 4.04" (0.06" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 7
Wettest 24-hour period: 2.50" (10th)
Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: 2.50" of rain on the 10th was the second wettest October 10th on record.
Comments:  Only two days recorded precipitation of more than one-half inch, however those dates accounted for 91% of the rain total for the month. Year to date, precipitation has totaled 42.31" or 99.7% of normal (average year-to-date: 42.45").

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: Northwest/32 mph (24th)
Average wind: 7.9 mph
Average relative humidity: 64%
Average sky cover: 40%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature
Average temperature: 62.9 degrees
Average high temperature: 76.5 degrees
Average low temperature: 50.5 degrees
Warmest temperature: 91.9 degrees (9th)
Coolest temperature: 27.2 degrees (29th)
Comments: None

Precipitation
Monthly total: 1.74" (automated rain gauge), 1.69" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 8
Wettest date: 0.74" (27th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: Northwest/22 mph (15th)
Average relative humidity: 76%
Average barometric pressure: 30.07 in. Hg
Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.89 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 70%
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.79 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 73%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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It's November? Where did fall go?

We've had a nice little run of fall weather lately with a mix of cool and warm temperatures that seem to average out to about what most people expect this time of year. Yeah well... you can forget about all that for the next several days!

High pressure aloft will strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and far southern U.S. into Mexico, forcing the jet stream well to our north. At the surface, high pressure will build into the southeastern U.S. from the Atlantic, setting up a good fetch of warm air from the Gulf into the Mid-South. While a front will attempt to move into the Mid-South from the north on Friday, it will stall to our north, blocked by the edge of the high pressure area over our region. Combined, the result is well above normal temperatures for several days.

The Wednesday mid-day run of the American GFS model valid Thursday evening shows surface high pressure drawing warm air into the Mid-South from the Gulf as the cooler air remains well to our north. (PivotalWx)

The warm weather started to creep back today as a warm front lifted to our north, shifting the wind to the south, escorting in moister air (higher dewpoints in the lower 60s versus 30s and 40s of late), and thus warmer temperatures. Even despite cloud cover all day and a few light showers around, the mercury still rose to the upper 60s.

Dewpoints will remain in the 60s for the next few days according to the GFS model. That is a lot of moisture in the air for early November! (PivotalWx)

We'll have low chances of showers daily for the next few days with the best chances being Thursday night into Friday, though still only 40-50%, as minor waves in the upper levels move through and trigger possible showers. An isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out Friday as well. By Saturday, the surface high establishes itself a bit more and rain chances dwindle to just a slight (20%) chance. That trend continues into early next week. 

A loop of forecast precipitation from the GFS model through Monday shows scattered chances several times between now and then. The primary rain chances will be Thursday night into Friday with a drying trend this weekend.

As for temperatures, if you really like cool, crisp fall air, look away! The highs, and especially the lows, will be far from that. Normally we average upper 60s for high temperatures this time of year and upper 40s for lows. You can add about 10° to those average highs as we will likely reach 80° at least once if not a couple times in the next 4-5 days (starting Thursday). Overnight lows will be very mild as well, owing to the warm moist air and cloud cover. Look for wake-up temperatures in the mid 60s each day into early next week.

GFS forecast temperatures over the next week show the warm air in place through the middle of next week. (Temperatures are for trend purposes only and are not exact.) (PivotalWx)

Looking ahead, the high should begin to break down, allowing a cold front to finally move through the Mid-South by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. That would push us back toward the "normal" range for temperatures and bring our next best chance of widespread rainfall of the measurable variety. Hopefully then we can get back to more "fall-like" weather!

Check for the latest updates to the MWN Forecast anytime using your MWN mobile app and follow us on social media for the latest info! Pertinent links can be found below.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder