URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1120 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011
...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH...
.A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. ALONG WITH THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES... VERY HUMID AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICIES BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
* HEAT INDEX READINGS: AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES
* TIMING: HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
* IMPACTS: PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THIS HEAT CAN BE DANGEROUS IF THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN POSSIBLE... RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 911.
Friday, June 3, 2011
May 2011 Climate Data and MWN Forecast Accuracy
As in April, May was again marked by multiple severe weather events across the region. The month started with heavy rainfall (nearly 7" at the WXLIVE! station in Bartlett on May 1-2), just as it did a year ago when a 500-year flood impacted west and middle TN. The last week of the month featured additional strong tornadoes with the highest-profile being the Joplin, MO EF-5 that killed 134. That system brought a high risk event to the Memphis area on May 25. A tornado-warned rotating supercell with pronounced wall cloud and picturesque beaver tail cloud passed over the north half of Shelby County with this system. Fortunately, damage was limited in the metro area.
The most noteworthy event in the city in May was the vast Mississippi River flooding that took place. The river crested at 47.8' at the Memphis gauge on May 9, less than a foot from the all-time record set during the Great Flood of '37, and forced the relocation of the Memphis in May World Championship Barbecue Cooking Contest from flooded Tom Lee Park to Tiger Lane.
Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
The average May temperature was 70.2 degrees, which was 0.4 degrees below normal. The average high temperature was 79.6 degrees and the average low was 60.9. The coolest temperature of the month was 46 degrees on the 5th and 17th and the highest temperature was 93 degrees on the 30th. There were 4 days in which the temperature reached 90 degrees or higher.
Precipitation for the month of May totaled 7.12", which was 1.97" above the normal of 5.15". There were 13 days with measurable rainfall (on 2 of those days more than an inch fell) and the maximum 24-hour total was 3.18" on the 2nd-3rd. The peak wind gust was 46 mph on the 25th during a severe thunderstorm with an average wind speed for the month of 8.9 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International for May.
Bartlett, TN
The average temperature for May at the WXLIVE! station in north Bartlett was 69.0 degrees with a maximum of 93.6 degrees on the 31st and a minimum of 41.3 degrees on the 5th.
May precipitation ended above normal with a total of 9.66", or more than 2.5" greater than at Memphis International. A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 10.76". The peak wind gust was 46 mph on the 1st. Average relative humidity was a high 70%. Click here for a daily recap on MemphisWeather.net.
MWN Forecast Accuracy
For the month of May, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 1.71 degrees, lower than all compared computer models, including the National Weather Service, by nearly 10%. Over 78% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast beat all data sources, averaging 2.35 degrees error and falling within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint nearly two-thirds of the time. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
The most noteworthy event in the city in May was the vast Mississippi River flooding that took place. The river crested at 47.8' at the Memphis gauge on May 9, less than a foot from the all-time record set during the Great Flood of '37, and forced the relocation of the Memphis in May World Championship Barbecue Cooking Contest from flooded Tom Lee Park to Tiger Lane.
Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
The average May temperature was 70.2 degrees, which was 0.4 degrees below normal. The average high temperature was 79.6 degrees and the average low was 60.9. The coolest temperature of the month was 46 degrees on the 5th and 17th and the highest temperature was 93 degrees on the 30th. There were 4 days in which the temperature reached 90 degrees or higher.
Precipitation for the month of May totaled 7.12", which was 1.97" above the normal of 5.15". There were 13 days with measurable rainfall (on 2 of those days more than an inch fell) and the maximum 24-hour total was 3.18" on the 2nd-3rd. The peak wind gust was 46 mph on the 25th during a severe thunderstorm with an average wind speed for the month of 8.9 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International for May.
Bartlett, TN
The average temperature for May at the WXLIVE! station in north Bartlett was 69.0 degrees with a maximum of 93.6 degrees on the 31st and a minimum of 41.3 degrees on the 5th.
May precipitation ended above normal with a total of 9.66", or more than 2.5" greater than at Memphis International. A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 10.76". The peak wind gust was 46 mph on the 1st. Average relative humidity was a high 70%. Click here for a daily recap on MemphisWeather.net.
MWN Forecast Accuracy
For the month of May, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 1.71 degrees, lower than all compared computer models, including the National Weather Service, by nearly 10%. Over 78% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast beat all data sources, averaging 2.35 degrees error and falling within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint nearly two-thirds of the time. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
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