Tuesday, April 5, 2016

March 2016 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

March Recap

A very warm month with record precipitation marked the beginning of spring in the Mid-South. Multiple rounds of heavy precipitation occurred during the month with a particularly wet spell during the second week of the month when nearly twice the normal monthly average occurred. That was followed by another 4"+ storm total to end the month. Despite abundant precipitation and cloud cover, temperatures averaged 4.5 degrees above normal for the month. Severe weather occurred with storms that rolled through the metro on the 13th (Tornado Warning) and additional storms on the 31st (Severe Thunderstorm Warnings). Flash flooding also occurred on the 9th-10th.

Top 10 wettest months of March on record

Top 10 wettest months on record

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 58.5 degrees (4.5 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 68.2 degrees (4.3 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 48.8 degrees (4.7 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 82 degrees (15th)
Coolest temperature: 34 degrees (21st)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: None

Monthly total: 16.20" (11.04" above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 13 (2.5 days above normal)
Wettest 24-hour period: 5.62" (9th-10th)
Total Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: Back-to-back daily precipitation records were set on the 9th (4.53") and 10th (3.43"), as well as on the 31st (2.42"). The monthly total marked the wettest March on record, besting the previous record by more than 3", and was the 4th wettest month ever recorded at Memphis International.
Comments: Five days recorded more than 1.00" of rain and three days recorded more than 2.00".

Peak wind: Southwest/39 mph (22nd)
Average wind: 9.3 mph
Average relative humidity: 62%
Average sky cover: 60%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 57.2 degrees
Average high temperature: 68.3 degrees
Average low temperature: 46.1 degrees
Warmest temperature: 83.1 degrees (15th)
Coolest temperature: 29.9 degrees (21st)
Comments: None.

Monthly total: 12.66" (automated rain gauge), 13.03" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 13
Wettest date: 3.76" (9th) (via automated gauge)
Total Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Peak wind: 27 mph (23rd)
Average relative humidity: 73%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.48 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 64%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.91 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 59%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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