Wednesday, May 5, 2010

April 2010 Climate Summary and Forecast Accuracy

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
The period of cold weather that persisted through winter and tapered off some in March swung the other way in April with a well-above-normal temperature average. At Memphis Int'l Airport, the average temperature for April was 66.0 degrees, which was 3.9 degrees above normal. The maximum temperature for the month was 86 degrees on the 14th and the lowest was 41 on the 9th. No temperature records were set in April.

April was a wet month, though much of the precipitation fell on just a few days, evidenced by the fact that there were only 6 days during the month in which measurable precipitation fell, 4 of those with more than 0.50". The airport recorded 7.02" of precipitation, which was 1.23" above normal. The maximum precipitation in a 24 hour period was 3.35" on the 23rd-24th. The peak wind gust was 48 mph on the 24th. Click here for the NWS climate recap for April.

Bartlett, TN
The average temperature for April at the WXLIVE! station in north Bartlett was 65.5 degrees, about one-half degree cooler than the airport, with a maximum of 85.9 on the 13th and a minimum of 37.6 degrees on the 9th. April precipitation was very localized across the metro area. Though the airport got over 7", the automated WXLIVE! gauge recorded less than half of that at 3.29". A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 3.82". There were 8 days with measurable precipitation, with a 24-hour maximum of 1.45" on the 24th. The peak wind gust was 40 mph on the 24th. Click here for a daily statistical recap on

MWN Forecast Accuracy
For the month of April, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 1.88 degrees, besting the compared computer models and the NWS by 0.12-0.48 degrees. Over 70% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of actual. For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast was also the best of the data sources at 2.48 degrees average error. More detailed accuracy statistics can be found here.

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