Friday, September 11, 2009

Weekend forecast discussion

Five-day total precipitation forecast for Sept. 11-16

For the last several days, most of the scattered shower and thunderstorm activity has been confined to northern Mississippi, though a few heavy showers have popped up over the metro region as well. That pattern will continue one to two more days before rain chances increase across greater Memphis late in the weekend and early next week.

Increased rain chances will be in response to an upper level low that will gradually move closer to the region and hang around into the first half of next week. That will result in a daily chance of rain and the potential for some heavy pockets of rain or flash flooding due to the slow motion of this system and the weak wind aloft that will cause individual showers or storms to be slow moving. The 5-day precipitation forecast from NOAA (above) shows where the potential for heavier rain will be through mid-week. The areas to our south will continue to have the greatest chance for rain. With all of the outdoor activities planned this weekend, I wouldn't cancel any plans, but it would be a good idea to keep an umbrella handy! Rain chances are about 40% for events like the Germantown Festival and Southern Heritage Classic.

The good part of this setup is that cloud cover will remain fairly abundant, so daytime highs will be tempered - mainly in the middle half of the 80s, though it will also serve to keep overnight lows from dropping much, remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Check out the MWN Forecast for all the details.

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